[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150500
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jan 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING:

A cold front is along 31N66W 20N73W. A secondary cold front
is about 180 nm to the west of the first cold front, from
22N78W in Cuba northward and northeastward. Expect southerly
gale-force winds, and sea heights that range from 11 feet
to 15 feet, from 28N northward between 62W and 65W, to the
east of the first cold front. Expect west to northwest
gale-force winds, and sea heights that range from 10 feet
to 16 feet, from 26N northward between 69W and 78W, on the
western side of the second cold front. The gale-force wind
conditions will last for the next 36 hours or so. The
24-hour rainfall total in inches, for the period that ended
at 15/0000 UTC, is 0.67 in Bermuda. The sea heights range
from 9 feet to 16 feet from the second cold front northward
and northwestward. The sea heights range from 7 feet to
10 feet from 25N northward between 50W and the first cold
front.

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is
issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 07N11W, to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W, to 04N20W
02N30W, crossing the Equator along 33W, to 01S39W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N
southward
from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. A surface
ridge extends from a 1026mb high pressure center that is in
southern Mississippi/SE Louisiana, to the Yucatan Peninsula, to
south central Honduras. Fresh to strong northerly winds are in
the eastern one-third of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh
winds, and some slower, are elsewhere in the area. The sea
heights range from 6 feet to 10 feet in much of the eastern
half of the Gulf. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet
in the remainder of the area.

High pressure prevails across the Gulf. Strong S return flow
will develop in the western Gulf by Sun morning, with the wind
speeds diminishing again by Mon night. A cold front is forecast
to enter the western Gulf Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through NW Haiti, between SW Haiti and
Jamaica,
to 15N80W, to the SE coast of Nicaragua from 11N to 12N, curving
northwestward through Nicaragua, to 14N89W in El Salvador. Broken
low level to middle level clouds cover the areas that are from
the cold front northward and northwestward. Rainshowers are
possible.

The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet from the coast of
Honduras northward from Jamaica westward. Those sea heights have
been moving through the Yucatan Channel southeastward, into the
NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights have been ranging
from 3 feet to 4 feet in the northern half of the remainder of
the
Caribbean Sea. The sea heights have been ranging from 4 feet to
5 feet in the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong
northerly
winds are from the cold front to the north and northwest. Light
to gentle winds are in the eastern one-third of the area. Gentle
to moderate winds are in the central one-third of the area.
The 24-hour rainfall total in inches, for the period that ended
at 15/0000 UTC, is 0.63 in Guadeloupe.

A cold front extends from the Windward Passage to the
SW Caribbean. The front will extend from the Virgin Islands
to 15N70W early Mon. Fresh to locally strong N winds west
of the front will persist into Sun. Fresh to strong
northeast to east trade winds will pulse in the south
central Caribbean Sea and near the coast of Colombia
from Sunday through late next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for
information about gale-force wind warnings on either
side of the western Atlantic Ocean cold front.

The sea heights have been ranging from 7 feet to 10 feet from
45W eastward. The sea heights elsewhere have been ranging
from 5 feet to 7 feet.

A 1041 mb high pressure center is near 41N34W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 60W
eastward.

A cold front from 31N66W to the Windward Passage will move
E and reach from near 31N55W to the Virgin Islands early
Mon before becoming stationary and weakening. Strong to
gale force winds will prevail on both sides of the front
through tonight. The gales will continue E of the front
through the remainder of the weekend. Seas of 13 to 17 ft
are expected to continue behind the front through the
weekend before gradually subsiding next week. High pressure
will build over the western Atlantic early next week.

$$
mt/al
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