[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142227
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jan 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

W Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N67W to the
coast of Eastern Cuba near 21N71W. A secondary cold front has
been introduced to this analysis, extending from 31N72W to 23N78W.
A pre-frontal trough extends from 30N65W to the coast of
Hispaniola near 20N71W. Gale force winds will continue ahead and
behind these features in the NW Discussion Waters, N of 28N and W
of 64W. Seas currently peak at 16 ft on both sides of the front.
Seas 8 ft or greater are north of 24N and W of 58W. Conditions
will gradually improve on Mon and Tue, with seas subsiding below
12 ft by the middle of next week.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to the coast of Brazil
near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm
on either side of the boundaries.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Fresh N winds
prevail in the E Gulf, with moderate N winds in the central Gulf
and gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are 8-11 ft in the eastern Gulf,
6-8 ft in the central Gulf, and 4-6 ft in the western Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure continues to build across the
Gulf. Fresh winds across the eastern Gulf will gradually decrease
into tonight. Strong S return flow will develop in the western
Gulf by Sun morning, with winds diminishing again by Mon night.
Looking ahead, a cold front is forecast to enter the western Gulf
Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from the coast of eastern Cuba near 20N78W to
the coast of Honduras near 16N83W. Fresh to strong N winds and
5-7 ft seas prevail north of the front, with 8-9 ft seas noted in
the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere in the Caribbean, gentle trades
prevail with 4-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, the front will reach from Hispaniola to 12N81W
early Sun and from the Virgin Islands to 15N70W early Mon. Fresh N
winds will prevail in the wake of the front. Strong N winds are
developing just E of Nicaragua and will persist into Sun. Fresh to
strong northeast to east trade winds will pulse in the south-
central Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia Sun through late
next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a W
Atlantic Gale Warning and the associated cold front.

Conditions across the W Atlantic are described in the SPECIAL
FEATURES section. E of 60W, the tropical Atlantic is dominated by
subtropical high pressures centered north of the area, with
moderate to fresh trades noted across the basin. Seas are
generally 5-7 ft, except from 20N to 27N between 22W and 41W where
seas are 8-10 ft in ENE swell. A trough extends from 31N40W to
26N44W, accompanied by scattered showers.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will move E and reach
from near 31N55W to the Virgin Islands early Mon before becoming
stationary and weakening. Strong to gale force winds will prevail
on both sides of the front through tonight. The gales will
continue E of the front through the remainder of the weekend. Seas
of 13 to 17 ft are expected to continue behind the front through
the weekend before gradually subsiding next week. High pressure
will build over the western Atlantic early next week.

$$
ERA
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