[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140831
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jan 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

WESTERN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING:

A strong cold front extends from 31N72W to central Cuba. Winds
have increased to gale- force off NE Florida, mainly north of 29N
and W of 78W. Gales will move eastward through the weekend,
developing ahead and behind the front. Seas are forecast to build
behind the front to near 15 ft by late today and ahead of the
front to near 16 ft by Sun. Conditions will gradually improve on
Mon and Tue, with seas subsiding below 12 ft by the middle of
next week.

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N16W to 03N17W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N17W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 01N to 06N between 09W and 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Fresh to strong
winds prevail over the eastern Gulf as well as the far SW Gulf of
Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in
the 10-13 ft range over the eastern Gulf and 7-10 ft over the
western Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure is building across the Gulf in the
wake of a cold front which moved SE of the area. Strong winds
across the Gulf will decrease from W to E today. Strong S return
flow will develop in the NW Gulf by Sun, with winds diminishing
again by Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from central Cuba to eastern Honduras. Fresh
to strong winds, and seas of 6-8 ft prevail west of the front.
Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere across the Caribbean, with
seas of 2-5 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east trade winds
will pulse in the south-central Caribbean and near the coast of
Colombia Sun through late next week. A cold front in the NW
Caribbean will move SE through the weekend, reaching from
Hispaniola to the SW Caribbean by early Sun. The front will
continue moving through the NE Caribbean into Mon, while gradually
weakening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on a Gale Warning
associated with a cold front over the western Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N72W to central Cuba. Strong to gale
force winds are west of the front, with strong to near-gale force
winds east of the front N of 23N. Seas over these areas range from
7-11 ft. Elsewhere over the discussion waters, gentle to moderate
winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, are noted N of 20N and W of 40W.
Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 7-9 ft, are across the
remainder of the discussion waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will move E
through the waters into the start of next week. Strong to gale
force southerly winds will prevail ahead of the front this
weekend. Strong winds are also expected behind the front, with
seas building to 12 to 15 ft. A period of NW gales will occur
behind the front offshore NE Florida today.

$$
AL
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