[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Jan 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN:

Gale-force W-to-NW winds will be starting to the northwest
of the current cold front, that is just to the east of
Florida. The cold front will be along 31N72W 22.5N78W.
Expect the gale-force winds, and sea heights to be ranging
from 8 feet to 13 feet, to be from 28N to 31N between
78W and 81W.

GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO:

Gale-force winds have been in the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico,
including within 60 nm of the coast of Veracruz in Mexico, during
parts of the last 24 hours. The gale-force winds will be slowing
down to less than gale-force, gradually, during the rest of the
late night and early morning hours of today.

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 05N,
to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W, to 02N30W, through
the Equator along 32W, to 02S37W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 06N southward from 60W
eastward. Isolated moderate is in the remainder of the area
that is from 12N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force winds that are in the SW corner of the area. The gale-
force winds will be slowing down to less than gale-force,
gradually,
during the rest of the late night and early morning hours of
today.

A surface ridge passes from the SE coast of Texas to the Isthmus
of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. The sea heights are ranging
from 8 feet to 12 feet in much of the Gulf of Mexico, from the
NE corner of the area to the SW corner of the area. The
comparatively highest sea heights are reaching 13 feet in the
central sections of the Gulf of Mexico. The gale-force winds
that have been in the SW corner of the area will continue
to slow down to less than gale-force during the rest of the
late night and early morning hours of today.
Fresh to strong northerly winds cover the rest of area.

High pressure is building across the Gulf in the wake
of a cold front which moved SE of the area. Gales offshore
Veracruz, Mexico will diminish tonight, with the strong winds
decreasing from W to E Sat. Strong S return flow will develop in
the NW Gulf by Sun, with diminish winds again by Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through the Straits of Florida, through
NW Cuba, into the NW Caribbean Sea, to N Belize, and N
Guatemala. Strong N winds are to the northwest of the cold
front. Precipitation: rainshowers are within 150 nm to the
east and southeast of the cold front. The sea heights that
range from 8 feet to 12 feet in the Gulf of Mexico are in
the Yucatan Channel. The sea heights range from 3 feet to
5 feet in the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

Rainshowers are possible in areas of broken to overcast
multilayered clouds in the trade wind flow.

Gentle to moderate NE winds are in the eastern one-third of
the area. Gentle to moderate NE winds are in the southern half
of the central one-third of the area. Light breezes are in the
northern half of the central one-third of the area. Gentle to
moderate winds are in the NW corner of the area.

Fresh to strong northeast to east trade winds will pulse in
the south-central Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia
Sun through late next week. A cold front in the NW Caribbean
will move SE through the weekend, reaching from Hispaniola
to the SW Caribbean by early Sun. The front will continue
moving through the NE Caribbean into Mon, while
gradually weakening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
the gale-force winds that are to the northwest of the cold
front that is just to the east of Florida.

A cold front passes through 31N75W, to the NW Bahamas, beyond
the Straits of Florida, and beyond NW Cuba, into the NW corner
of the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is along 25N75W to
NW Haiti. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
from 21N northward between 65W and 73W. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and other rainshowers, are elsewhere from
20N northward from 60W westward. Near gale-force to gale-force
NW winds are from the cold front northwestward. Strong and
faster southerly winds are from 23N northward between 60W
and 70W. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 9 feet from 27N
northward from 70W westward.

A stationary front passes through 31N43W to 26N50W. A surface
trough continues from 26N50W to 23N61W. A surface trough is
within 200 nm to 300 nm to the east of the stationary front
from 22N northward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is from 27N northward between 35W and 46W.
Rainshowers are possible also from 13N northward between 26W
and 60W.

Fresh to strong NE winds are: from 24N northward from 20W
eastward; from 18N to 29N between 20W and 30W; from 05N
to 27N between 30W and 40W; and from 14N southward between
40W and 50W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere from
70W eastward.

The sea heights range from 6 feet to 9 feet from 40W
eastward, and from 16N southward between 40W and 60W.
The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere
from 70W westward.

A surface ridge extends from a 1031 mb high pressure
center that is near 35N19W, through 32N31W, to 28N37W,
to 20N38W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the
Atlantic Ocean from 10N northward from 40W eastward.

A cold front from 31N75W to W Cuba will move E through
the waters into the start of next week. Strong southerly
winds ahead of the front will increase to gales N of 28N this
weekend. Strong winds are also expected behind the front, with
seas building to 12 to 15 ft. A period of NW gales will occur
tonight into Sat behind the front offshore NE Florida.

$$
mt/al
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