[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110508
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Jan 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough reaches westward from near the Sierra
Leone/Liberia border into the Atlantic to 06N18W. An ITCZ
continues southwestward from 06N18W through 01N30W to north of
Brazil at 01N40W. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of
the trough from 04N to 06N between the Liberia coast and 16W, and
also near and up to 160 nm north of ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high at the central Gulf is dominating much of the
region. Moderate northerly winds are found at the eastern Bay of
Campeche, while southerly winds are present at the northwestern
Gulf. Seas at both areas range from 2 to 3 ft. Light to gentle
winds and seas at 1 to 2 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the high pressure will shift toward the western
Atlantic as a cold front moves off the coast of Texas by Fri
morning. Fresh southerly return flow is expected ahead of the
front. Strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the
front, which is forecast to reach from near Tampa Bay, Florida to
Veracruz, Mexico by early Fri. Winds to gale force and rough seas
are possible off Veracruz behind the front by Fri, with fresh to
strong northerly winds elsewhere. Winds and seas will diminish
from west to east into Sat as the front moves southeast of the
area. Afterward, fresh to strong southerly return flow is expected
to develop across the western Gulf on Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over eastern Panama
and northwestern Colombia, and adjacent Caribbean waters.
Otherwise, a modest 1019 mb Bermuda High is supporting gentle to
moderate NE to E trades over the entire basin. Seas are at 4 to 5
ft across the south-central and eastern basin, while 2 to 4 ft for
the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds should prevail
across most the basin through Wed. Pulsing fresh to strong winds
are expected at the south-central Caribbean Wed night through Fri
night as the Bermuda High strengthens a little. A cold front will
reach the Yucatan Channel by Fri night, follow by fresh to
locally strong NW to N winds. The front will reach from eastern
Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Sat afternoon, and from Haiti to
near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua Sat night into Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from north-central Atlantic across 31N53W to
just north of Hispaniola near 21N69W. Scattered showers are
occurring near and up to 40 nm along either side of the front.
Convergent southerly flow is supporting scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms farther east of the front north of 25N
between 52W and 54W. Convergent trades related to a fresh trade-
wind surge are causing scattered moderate convection northeast of
French Guiana from 04N to 09N between 41W and 50W. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the
Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh southerly winds with 6 to 8 ft seas are evident
near the cold front north of 23N between 50W and 58W. Otherwise,
the surface ridge related to the Azores High is sustaining light
to gentle winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft north of 27N between 25W and
60W. To the west, the Bermuda High is supporting light to gentle
winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in easterly swell, north of 20N
between 60W and the Georgia/Florida coast. Farther southeast from
03N to 27N, moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades with 7 to 10 ft
seas are present between the Africa coast and 50W, and also near
the Canary Islands north of 27N between the northwest African
coast and 25W. Gentle to moderate E to SE trades and seas of 5 to
7 ft are seen from 06N to 27N between 50W and the Lesser Antilles.
Light to gentle S to SW winds with 3 to 5 ft seas in southerly
swell prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
reach from near 31N55W to 20N68W by Wed morning, and from 31N52W
to 20N67W by Thu morning. The Bermuda High will follow behind and
bring benign conditions through Thu night. Another stronger cold
front is anticipated to move off the northeast Florida coast
early Fri. As it moves eastward across the western Atlantic
waters, expect increasing winds and building seas. Fresh to strong
winds are forecast on either side of the front during the
upcoming weekend. These winds could reach minimal gale force
across the waters N of 29N late Sat into Sat night. Seas of 12 to
15 ft are expected with the strongest winds northeast of the
Bahamas.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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