[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Jan 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic through the coast
of Sierra Leone and extends about 60 nm offshore to 07N13W. The
ITCZ continues from 07N13W southwestward to 01N35W, along 01N to
near 45W. No significant convection is noted near the monsoon
trough or ITCZ at this time, except off the coast of Liberia from
04N to 06N between 08W and 14W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends northeast from 1022 mb high pressure in
the west-central Gulf near 24.5N93W to the Panhandle of Florida
and southwest to near Tampico, Mexico. Winds are mainly light to
gentle and anticyclonic across the basin under the high. A weak
trough is in the Texas coastal waters with little sensible impact.
Seas are mainly 1-2 ft across the basin, except to 3 ft west of
the Yucatan Peninsula in the eastern Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, high pressure over the Gulf waters will shift
toward the western Atlantic as a cold front moves off the coast of
Texas by Fri morning. Fresh southerly return flow is expected
ahead of the front. Strong northerly winds and building seas will
follow the front, which is forecast to reach from near Tampa Bay,
Florida to Veracruz, Mexico by early Fri. Winds to gale force and
rough seas are possible off Veracruz behind the front by Fri, with
fresh to strong northerly winds elsewhere. Winds and seas will
diminish from W to E into Sat as the front moves SE of the area.
Then, fresh to strong southerly return flow is expected across the
western Gulf on Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea is weak allowing
for gentle to moderate breezes across the basin. Additionally, an
upper-level ridge over the central Caribbean sea is helping
maintain dry and tranquil conditions. The exception is offshore
northern Panama where some scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are possible this evening in the vicinity of the
monsoon trough which extends from the Pacific Ocean. Seas across
the eastern and central Caribbean area 3-5 ft, and 2-4 ft in the
western Caribbean.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds are expected
across most the basin through Wed. Pulsing fresh to strong winds
are expected across the south-central Caribbean Wed night through
Thu night as high pressure builds N of the area. A cold front will
reach the Yucatan Channel by Fri night followed by fresh to
locally strong NW to N winds. The front will reach from eastern
Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Sat, and from Haiti to near Cabo
Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua by Sat night into Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N56W to just north of Hispaniola near
21N70W. Convergent southerly flow is supporting scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms near the front. Fresh to strong SW
winds are north of 29N and within about 180 nm east of the front.
West of the front, high pressure prevails with mainly gentle to
moderate winds. Seas are mainly 3-5 ft west of 65W, except 4-7 ft
along 31N in W to NW swell. The remainder of the Atlantic is
under the influence of 1032 mb high pressure centered both near
the Azores and north of the Canary Islands, extending a ridge to
near 23N65W. The pressure gradient between this high and lower
pressures in the deeper tropics supports moderate to fresh trade
winds across the majority of the waters elsewhere east of the
mentioned cold front. Seas are mainly 6-9 ft in NE to E swell,
except mixed with NW swell north of about 26N.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from near
31N55W to 20N68W by Wed morning, and from 31N52W to 20N67W by Thu
morning. High pressure will follow the front. A strong cold front
will move off the northeast Florida coast early Fri. As the front
moves eastward across the forecast waters, expect increasing
winds and building seas. Fresh to strong winds are forecast on
either side of the front during the upcoming weekend. These winds
could reach minimal gale force across the waters N of 29N late Sat
into Sat night. Seas of 12-15 ft are expected with the strongest
winds E of the Bahamas.

$$
Lewitsky
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