[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091754
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jan 09 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia near 06N10W and extends southwest to 02N20W. The ITCZ
continues from 02N20W to 01N30W to 00N42W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 20W
and 33W and north of the ITCZ from 01N to 05N between 33W and
48W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends from the FL Big Bend to 28N90W, where
it transitions to a dissipating stationary front extending to
about 60 nm offshore South Padre Island. No significant
convection is associated with this front. Mainly gentle to
moderate NE-E winds are behind this boundary with 1 to 3 ft
seas. Gentle to moderate N-NE breezes and slight seas cover the
remainder of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the front will lift NE as a warm front
through Wed night. Light to gentle variable winds will dominate
the basin afterward through Thu morning when a strong cold front
is forecast to emerge off the coast of Texas. Fresh southerly
flow will return to the Texas coast Wed into Thu ahead of this
front, and strong NW winds and building seas will follow the
front over the northwest Gulf Thu night. Looking ahead, the front
will reach from near Tampa Bay, Florida, to Veracruz, Mexico by
early Fri. Winds to gale force and rough seas are possible off
Veracruz behind the front by Fri, with fresh to strong northerly
winds elsewhere. Winds and seas will diminish into Sat as the
front moves southeast of the area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient associated with a 1025 mb Bermuda High
continues to sustain a mainly moderate easterly trade-wind
pattern across the eastern and central basin with 3 to 5 ft
seas. Moderate to fresh with locally strong winds and seas of
5-6 ft are evident in the SW basin. The northwest basin is
experiencing gentle trades and 2 to 4 ft seas due to a lighter
pressure gradient.

For the forecast, the surface ridge north of the area will
support the continuation of moderate to fresh winds across the
eastern and central Caribbean today, with locally strong winds
in the Windward Passage and off the Colombian coast. Winds will
diminish to gentle to moderate speeds over most of the basin
today through Wed as the high pressure weakens and shifts
eastward. Winds will increase again to moderate to fresh speeds
over the northwestern Caribbean and south of Cuba Wed through
late Thu as high pressure builds over the Gulf of Mexico.
Looking ahead, fresh NW winds will follow a cold front that will
move into the northwestern Caribbean late Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front emerging off the SE U.S. coast enters the area near
31N80W and extends southwest to Jacksonville, FL. A surface
trough ahead of this boundary, in combination with an
upper-level disturbance, is generating a strong line of
convection that stretches from 31N71W to the N Bahamas. Fresh to
strong SW winds are ahead of the trough north of 27N and west of
70W, while strong E-NE winds are behind the trough north of 27N.
Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the area. Farther east, a cold front
extends from 31N44W to 27N50W, where the boundary becomes
stationary and stretches along 25N to near the central Bahamas.
Fresh SW winds are ahead of the cold front north of 29N and west
of 30W. High pressure behind the front is allowing for gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow north of 25N, where seas remain near
6 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas
cover the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front
will weaken and dissipate later today. High pressure building
behind the front will support moderate to fresh trade winds into
tonight, mainly south of 22N. The front moving off the SE U.S.
coast will weaken and nearly stall as it reaches from Bermuda to
the Straits of Florida by Tue. A reinforcing front will move
into the region Wed, merge with the previous front, and then
stall and dissipate from 31N55W to eastern Cuba by late Thu.
Looking ahead, increasing winds and waves will accompany a
strong cold front that will move off the northeast Florida coast
early Fri. The front will reach from near Bermuda to central
Cuba by early Sat.

$$
Mora
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