[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091027
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Jan 09 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near Freetown, Sierra
Leone then passes through a 1011 mb low located near 02N18W and
to 01N20W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near these
features from the Equator to 07N between the Sierra Leone/Liberia
coast and 21W. The ITCZ continues from 01N20W through 02N30W to
01N42W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 02N to 05N
between 37W-42W, and well to the NW of the ITCZ within 30 nm of
line from 05N45W to 05N49W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the far western Florida panhandle near
Pensacola, southwestward to 28N91W, where it transitions to a
stationary front to inland the northeast coast of Mexico. A
pre-frontal trough stretches southwestward from northern Florida
Panhandle to 28N86W and southward to 24N86W. Isolated showers are
present near and behind the fronts over the northwestern Gulf,
and also near the trough across the northeastern Gulf. A surface
trough is triggering isolated thunderstorms at the west-central
Gulf. Another surface trough is causing similar conditions at the
eastern Gulf of Campeche. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms have developed in the Straits of Florida along the
western section of a stationary front that extends from the
Atlantic Ocean westward to near central Cuba. Moderate N to NE
winds with 3-4 ft seas are found over the northwestern Gulf and
eastern Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds and seas in the
range of 1-3 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will stall over
the northern and eastern Gulf today through early Tue, and lift NE
as a warm front later during Tue and through Wed night. The
stationary portion will weaken and dissipate through tonight.
Light to gentle variable winds will dominate the basin afterward
through Thu morning when a strong cold front is forecast to emerge
off the coast of Texas. Fresh southerly flow will return to the
Texas coast Wed into Thu ahead of this front, and strong NW winds
and building seas will follow the front over the northwest Gulf
Thu night. Looking ahead, the front will reach from near Tampa
Bay, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico by early Fri. Winds to gale force
and rough seas are possible off Veracruz Fri behind the front,
with fresh to strong northerly winds elsewhere. Winds and seas
will diminish into Sat as the front moves southeast of the area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient associated to a 1024 mb Bermuda High continues to
sustain a easterly trade-wind pattern across the entire basin.
Moderate to fresh with locally strong winds and seas of 5-6 ft are
evident at the south-central basin. Gentle to moderate northeast
to east winds along with 4-5 ft seas are seen over the north-
central and eastern basin. Gentle to moderate northeast to east
trade winds along with seas of 3-4 ft prevail for the rest of the
basin.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High will prolong moderate to
fresh winds across the eastern and central Caribbean today, with
locally strong winds in the Windward Passage and off the Colombian
coast. Winds will diminish to between gentle and moderate over
most of the basin Mon through Wed as the high pressure weakens and
shifts eastward. Winds will increase again, reaching moderate to
fresh over the northwestern Caribbean and south of Cuba Wed
through late Thu as high pressure builds over the Gulf of Mexico.
Looking ahead, fresh NW winds will follow a cold front moving into
the northwestern Caribbean late Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic
across 31N47W to 27N55W and to 25N66W, where it transitions to a
stationary front to 24N73W, to across the central Bahamas and
to the Straits of Florida, reaching to near northwestern Cuba.
Fresh to strong southwest winds are within 360 nm E of the cold
front N of 30N, while fresh to strong northwest winds are west of
the cold front to 50W and N of 30N. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range,
both E and W of the cold front.

Patches of broken low cloud and possible isolated showers are
within 120 nm N of the stationary front E of 70W. Scattered
showers and isolated are noted within 120 nm N of the stationary
front W of about 70W, including the northwestern Bahamas and
Florida Straits. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen
within about 120 nm E of the front and N of 28N. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms developed during the overnight hours
in the Straits of Florida along and near the stationary boundary.
A surface trough, in combination with an upper-level disturbance
that is riding eastward along a jet stream branch, is sustaining
an area of broken to overcast low and mid-level clouds with
embedded scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 19N to
23N between 67W-72W. Please refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Elsewhere, the surface ridge associated with the Azores and
Bermuda Highs is sustaining gentle to moderate easterly winds with
6-8 ft seas in northerly swell north of 27N between the northwest
African coast and 65W. Gentle to moderate northeast to southeast
winds and seas of 4-6 ft are present north of 20N between 65W and
the Florida/Georgia coast. Farther south, moderate to fresh
northeast to northeast to east trade winds and seas of 6-9 ft are
evident from 03N to 27N between the central African coast and the
Lesser Antilles/65W. Light to gentle monsoonal winds with 3-6 ft
seas prevail for the remainder of Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
shift east of 55W this morning, while the stationary portion
dissipates. High pressure building behind the front will support
moderate to fresh trade winds into tonight, mainly south of 22N.
Another cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast early
Mon, then weaken and nearly stall as it reaches from Bermuda to
the Straits of Florida by Tue. A reinforcing front will move into
the region Wed, merge with the previous front, and then stall and
dissipate from 31N55W to eastern Cuba by late Thu. Looking ahead,
increasing winds and waves will accompany a strong cold front that
will move off the northeast Florida coast early Fri. The front
will reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba by early Sat.

$$
Aguirre
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