[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071032
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jan 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Libera near 05N09W
to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W to 03N28W to 00N40W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 00N to 07N, between
10W and 54W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1026 mb in the NE Gulf, centered near 30N86W,
dominates the weather pattern, thus providing moderate to locally
fresh return flow to most of the basin along with seas of 3-5 ft.
Winds are light to gentle and variable near the high in the NE
Gulf with 1-3 ft seas.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh winds will persist
across much of the southern Gulf through this morning in the wake
of a former cold front. Southerly flow around high pressure over
the SE U.S. will dominate this weekend across the Gulf. These
winds will diminish through tonight ahead of the next front which
will move off the Texas coast Sun morning. The front will stall
over the northwest Gulf but continue across the northeast Gulf
through early Mon. Looking ahead, the front will stall over the
eastern Gulf by early Tue, then dissipate through Tue night. Fresh
southerly flow will return to the Texas coast by late Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure north of
the area and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting
moderate to fresh E-NE trade winds across the majority of the
basin with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range. A localized area of
strong winds prevails offshore Colombia, thus generating seas to
9 ft. Otherwise, fresh easterly winds persist in the tropical
Atlantic waters and exposed passages between the Islands along
with 8-9 ft seas.

For the forecast, surface ridging north of the area will continue
to support locally strong winds off the Colombian coast through
Sun night. Similar winds are forecast across the Windward Passage,
and south of Hispaniola tonight through Sun night. A weak cold
front over western Cuba will dissipate today. High pressure
building in the wake of the front will support moderate to fresh
NE to E winds south of Cuba through Sun evening. Looking ahead,
winds and seas will diminish over most of the basin Mon through
the middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from Bermuda SW to the central Bahamas and
western Cuba and generates scattered showers over the region N of
26N between 64W and 71W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are in
the immediate vicinity of the front N of 29N along with 5-6 ft
seas. The remaining subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of
a broad surface ridge anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near
30N43W. Winds are gentle within the ridge axis, gradually
increasing to fresh easterlies south of 22N. Seas are 5-7 ft
north of 22N and 8-10 ft south of 22N.

For the forecast W of 55W, the portion of the cold front north of
25N will continue to move east of the area through late today,
with the southern portion stalling across the central Bahamas to
northwest Cuba through late Sun, before dissipating Mon. High
pressure building behind the front will support moderate to fresh
trade winds into early next week mainly south of 22N. Looking
ahead, another front will move off the northeast Florida coast
early Mon, then weaken as it reaches from Bermuda to the Straits
of Florida by Tue. The front will dissipate Tue night, ahead of a
third, stronger front that will move off the northeast Florida
coast Tue night and reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida
by late Wed.

$$
Ramos
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