[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070353
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Jan 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Libera near 05N10W
to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 01N40W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 01N to 05N, between 21W and
39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure in the NE Gulf, centered near 29N87W, dominates
the weather pattern. Fresh S-SE are in the NW Gulf with 4-5 ft
seas. Fresh E winds are in the southern Gulf, including the
Florida Straits and Yucatan Channel. Seas are 5-7 ft in these
areas. Winds are light to gentle near the high in the NE Gulf
with 1-2 ft seas.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh winds will persist
across much of the southern Gulf through Sat morning in the wake
of a former cold front. Southerly flow around high pressure over
the SE U.S. will dominate this weekend across the Gulf. These
winds will diminish through Sat night ahead of the next front
which will move off the Texas coast Sun morning. The front will
stall over the northwest Gulf but continue across the northeast
Gulf through early Mon. Looking ahead, the front will stall over
the eastern Gulf by early Tue, then dissipate through Tue night.
Fresh southerly flow will return to the Texas coast by late Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail end of a cold front has entered the far NW Caribbean. A
few showers and thunderstorms are observed along the front. The
pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure north of the
area and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh
E-NE trade winds across the majority of the basin. Seas are 6-8
ft in the central and eastern Caribbean and 4-6 in the NW
Caribbean, except 5-7 ft the Yucatan Channel. A localized area
of strong winds offshore Colombia is generating seas to 9 ft.
Fresh to strong easterly winds persist in tropical Atlantic
waters with 7-9 ft seas. These conditions are impacting the
Atlantic side of the Lesser Antilles and exposed passages
between the Islands.

For the forecast, surface ridging north of the area will
continue to support locally strong winds off the Colombian coast
through Sun night. Similar winds are forecast across the
Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola Sat night through Sun
night. A weak cold front entering the Yucatan Channel will
dissipate through Sat. High pressure building in the wake of the
front will support moderate to fresh NE to E winds south of Cuba
through Sun evening. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish
over most of the basin through the early part of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N69W, across the Bahamas, to the
coast of Cuba near 23N80W. A line of thunderstorms is observed
along the front, north of 27W. Moderate NW winds are observed
behind the front, with 4-6 ft seas. Moderate S to SW winds are
observed ahead of the front, with 4-6 ft seas. The remaining
subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad surface
ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near 31N41W. Winds are
gentle within the ridge axis, gradually increasing to fresh
easterlies south of 20N. Seas are 4-6 ft north of 20N and 6-10
ft south of 20N.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N69W SW
to Andros Island and western Cuba. The portion of the front
north of 25N will continue to move east of the area through late
Sat, with the southern portion stalling across the central
Bahamas to northwest Cuba through late Sun, before dissipating
Mon. High pressure building behind the front will support
moderate to fresh trade winds into early next week mainly south
of 22N. Looking ahead, another front will move off the northeast
Florida coast early Mon, then weaken as it reaches from Bermuda
to the Straits of Florida by Tue. The front will dissipate Tue
night, ahead of a third, stronger front that will move off the
northeast Florida coast Tue night and reach from Bermuda to the
Straits of Florida by late Wed.

$$
Flynn
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