[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021044
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Jan 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Liberia near 06N10W, then continues to 06N15W. The ITCZ extends
from 06N15W to 02N30W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from the equator to 08N between 24W and 47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging anchored over the SE CONUS dominates the Gulf
waters producing fresh to strong SE to S winds over the western
half of the gulf and moderate to locally fresh return flow E of
90W. Seas are generally 3-5 ft. Otherwise, southerly winds and
abundant moisture across the northern Gulf coast continue to
support the development of dense marine fog through the afternoon
hours. The dense fog is likely to reduce the visibility to below
1 nm, creating hazardous marine conditions.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between low pressure
deepening over the SW United States and surface ridging across the
Gulf of Mexico will support fresh to locally strong SE to S winds
across most of the basin through Tue morning. The pressure
gradient will weaken afterwards as a cold front associated with
the low pressure come off the Texas coast Tue afternoon. Moderate
to fresh winds are forecast ahead and behind the front as it
traverses the basin before reaching the Florida Big Bend on Thu
morning. A secondary push of cold air forecast to move across the
Gulf on Thu will support the continuation of moderate to fresh
winds over most of the Gulf through Fri night. Patchy dense marine
fog is possible through this afternoon, especially within 120 NM
of the U.S. coatline.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Surface ridging N of the area extends to the northern half of the
basin, thus resulting in a tighter pressure gradient and moderate
to fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean with locally
strong winds along the offshore waters of Colombia. Seas are in
the 3-6 ft range with slightly higher seas to 8 ft off the coast
of Colombia.

For the forecast, surface ridging N of the area extending to the
northern half of the Caribbean will maintain moderate to fresh
trade winds across most of the basin through the forecast period.
Locally strong winds are expected during the night hours off the
coast of Colombia, the Lee side of southern Cuba, Hispaniola
adjacent waters, and the Mona and Windward passages through Wed.
Afterwards, strong winds only will prevail off the coast of
Colombia. Otherwise, a weakening cold front is forecast to reach
the NW Caribbean on Fri, with fresh NE winds and building seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A former cold front has briefly stalled from 31N70W to the area
of West Palm Beach, Florida. Trade winds S of 25N are moderate
while winds N of 25N are light to gentle and variable. Seas in the
SW N Atltantic waters are in the 3-5 ft range. A second stationary
front is just west of the Canary Islands supporting moderate to
fresh NE winds and seas to 9 ft. The remainder subtropical
Atlantic waters are being dominated by surface ridging, which is
providing moderate to locally fresh winds across the central
Atlantic waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, the front will transition back to a
cold front later today and track eastward along and north of 28N
through Wed morning. Tradewinds south of 25N are forecast to
increase to moderate to fresh speeds tonight through Fri morning
with fresh to strong NE winds pulsing nightly north of Hispaniola
and in the Windward Passage. A new cold front will emerge off the
coast of the SE United States on Thu along with fresh to locally
strong southerly winds forecast to affect the waters N of 28N
through Fri. The front will weaken and extend from 31N68W to
27N73W Fri evening and move out of the region late in the weekend.
Otherwise, dense fog is expected for the coastal and adjacent
waters of NE Florida through this afternoon.

$$
Ramos
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