[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020534
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Jan 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W, then continues to 07N16W. Then, the
ITCZ extends from 07N16W to 03N30W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted from the equator to 08N
between 20W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the Gulf waters producing gentle to moderate SE
to S winds with the exception of moderate to fresh easterly winds
near the NW coast of the Yucatan peninsula. Seas are generally 1-3
ft based on altimeter data and buoy observations. Shower activity
is limited.

The light southerly winds and abundant moisture across the northern
Gulf coast remain favorable for the development of dense marine
fog during the overnight hours. Dense Fog Advisory is in effect
until the late morning hours for the waters from southern Texas
all the way to SW Florida. The dense fog is likely to reduce the
visibility to below 1 nm, creating hazardous marine conditions.

For the forecast, a developing high pressure over the W Atlantic
will force fresh to strong SE to S return flow tonight through Tue
night over the N and central Gulf. A cold front will move off of
the Texas coast Tue afternoon and cross the Gulf by Wed night
accompanied by only moderate to fresh winds. A secondary push of
cold air should quickly move across the Gulf on Thu and produce
fresh to strong N to NE winds over most of the Gulf on Fri. Patchy
dense marine fog is possible at times, especially within 120 NM
of the U.S. coastline through Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong trade winds
over the south-central Caribbean, and fresh NE winds across the
Windward passage. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere over the
north central Caribbean as well as the eastern Caribbean, including
also the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate winds are over the
western Caribbean. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the south-
central Caribbean. Over the north-central and eastern Caribbean,
including the Windward passage, seas of 4-6 ft prevail. Seas of
3-5 ft are over the western Caribbean, highest in the Gulf of
Honduras.

Patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow are
moving across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing
showers.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient from a surface ridge to
the northeast and the Colombian Low will continue to support moderate
to fresh trades across the Caribbean through Tue morning. Locally
strong trades will pulse nightly within 90 NM of the Colombian coast.
Winds will increase some starting Tue afternoon over the eastern
and central Caribbean as well as the tropical N Atlantic waters,
with fresh to strong trades likely in the Windward Passage, the
Mona Passage, and south of Hispaniola. Winds should again diminish
on Thu over the Caribbean ahead of a cold front moving across the
Gulf of Mexico. The weakening front should reach the NW Caribbean
on Fri, with NE winds and building seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front stretches from 31N72W to just N of West Palm Beach,
Florida. A few showers are ahead of the front N of 29N. Light
winds and seas of 4-5 ft are near the frontal boundary. A surface
trough is analyzed farther east along 61W/62W. Light to gentle
winds are in the vicinity of the trough. An area of showers with
embedded thunderstorms is noted E of the through axis affecting
mainly the waters from 20N-25N between 55W-60W. An upper-level
trough supports this convective activity. Another cold front
crosses between the Madeira and the Canary Islands and extends to
near 30N20W where it begins to dissipate to near 26N30W. Low
clouds with possible showers are related to the front. Fresh to
strong NE winds are observed per scatterometer data in the wake of
the front between 24W-30W where seas are in the 9-10 ft range.
The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the influence
of a ridge, anchored by a 1029 mb high pressure located SW of the
Azores near 34N30W. Multilayered clouds, with possible showers,
associated with strong upper-level winds dominate most of the
tropical Atlantic. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are this
area with seas of 5-7 ft between 35W and the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will track eastward along
and north of 28N early this week. The tradewinds are expected to
increase from Tue night through Thu night south of 25N and east of
75W. During that time, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse nightly
north of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong
SW winds ahead of a new cold front are anticipated to occur north
of the Bahamas on Tue night through Thu morning. After emerging
from the SE United States coast Thu, the cold front should extend
from 31N74W to the central Bahamas on Fri morning.

$$
GR
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