[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271125
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Feb 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A 998 mb low pressure centered
east of the Bermuda near 33N49W will intensify more as it moves
across the north-central Atlantic through today. Winds are
reaching gale force on the south side of the low north of 28N
between 35W and 52W through this afternoon. Please read the
paragraph below for more information about the associated swell.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Recent altimeter
satellite data confirmed very large wave heights in Atlantic
waters north of 25N between 27W and 58W. This is mostly due to
large NW swell with 12 to 16 second periods. Wave heights to 8 ft
will reach into the tropical Atlantic to 12N and east of 60W by
tonight. Reinforcing NW swell will maintain very large combined
seas north of 25N through Wed night north of 25N between 35W and
60W.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore
Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for
more details on these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near Freetown and extends southwestward to 01N20W. An ITCZ
then continues westward from 01N20W through 00N30W to just
northeast of Belem, Brazil at 00N46W. Scattered showers are noted
south of the trough from 01N to 03N between 10W and 15W, and near
the ITCZ from 00N to 06N between 27W and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge reaches westward from a 1019 mb high at the Great
Bahamas Bank to north of Tampico, Mexico. Patchy fog are reported
by oil platforms across the northern Gulf offshore waters with
visibility down to 3 nm. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and
seas at 4 to 6 ft are present at the western Gulf, including the
Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate southerly winds with 2 to 4 ft
seas prevail at the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters through Wed night. Expect southerly winds, gentle to
moderate for the eastern Gulf, and moderate to occasional fresh at
the western Gulf. This moist southerly flow will continue to
favor the development of marine fog across the northern Gulf
during night and early morning hours. Fresh to locally strong
winds will pulse each night into the early morning hours near and
northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula due to a thermal trough.
Southerly flow will increase and reach fresh to strong by Thu
ahead of a cold front forecast to move eastward across the Gulf on
Fri. These winds could reach near-gale force across the northern
Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1019 mb high over the Great Bahamas Bank is sustaining a fair
trade-wind pattern across the entire basin. Fresh to strong with
locally near-gale ENE winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are evident at the
south- central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE winds and seas at 4 to
7 ft exist for the north-central basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to
ESE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are prevail for the rest of the
basin, including the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a 1019 mb high
and the Colombian low will sustain fresh to strong trade winds
over the south-central Caribbean through Fri. Winds off the coast
of Colombia might pulse to minimal gale-force Wed and Thu nights.
Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at
night tonight through Wed. By Thu, these winds will become strong
to near-gale force and spread over the northwestern basin.
Moderate long-period N swell will impact the northeastern
Caribbean and passages most of this week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for information about
the gale warning and significant swell event.

A cold front reaches west-southwestward from a deepening 998 mb
low pressure near 33N48W through 31N39W to 27N70W, then continues
northwestward as a warm front to beyond 31N at 72W. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are occurring near and east of the front
north of 27N between 43W and the front. Patchy showers are found
along and up to 80 nm north of the rest of this boundary.
Convergent trade winds are causing scattered moderate convection
from the Equator to 07N between 44W and the French Guiana/Brazil
coast. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional
convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Other than the gale winds and very rough seas mentioned in the
Special Features section at the beginning, fresh to strong SW to
NW winds with 11 to 15 ft seas are found north of 21N between 37W
and 58W. To the west, moderate to locally fresh NW winds and seas
at 6 to 10 ft are evident north of 22N between 60W and 75W.
Farther west, gentle to moderate W winds with 3 to 6 ft seas exist
from the Bahamas northward between 75W and the Georgia-Florida
coast. For the northeast Atlantic, gentle to moderate southerly
winds and seas of 7 to 11 ft are seen north of 22N between 23W and
37W. Near the Canary Islands, light to gentle winds and seas of 5
to 7 ft in moderate NW swell dominate north of 22N between the
northwest African coast and 23W. Near the Cabo Verde Islands,
mainly moderate NNE to ENE trades with 5 to 7 ft seas exist from
05N to 22N between the central African coast and 45W. Farther
west, gentle ENE to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted from
04N to 22N between 45W and the Lesser Antilles. Gentle easterly
and NW winds with 4 to 5 ft seas in light northerly swell prevail
elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will move across the
central Atlantic today. Gale force winds have shifted east of
55W, outside the offshore waters but fresh to strong westerly
winds behind the front will linger N of 28N east of 60W through
tonight. Very rough seas will persist east of 60W through midweek.
Looking ahead, another frontal boundary is going to move off the
Georgia/Carolinas coast this evening, bringing fresh to strong
westerly winds and rising seas to the waters off northeast Florida
by late tonight. This boundary will also cause strong to near-
gale westerly winds north of 28N across the western Atlantic
waters Tue through Wed.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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