[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Sun Feb 26 23:55:34 CST 2023


AXNT20 KNHC 270555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Feb 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1002 mb low pressure centered
near 32N54W will intensify more as it moves into the north-central
Atlantic through tonight. Winds are reaching gale force on the
south side of the low pressure north of 28N between 35W and 55W
through this afternoon. Please read the paragraph below for more
information about the associated swell.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Recent altimeter
satellite data confirmed very large wave heights in Atlantic
waters north of 25N between 25W and 55W. This is mostly due to NW
swell with 12 to 16 second periods. Wave heights to 8 ft will
reach through the tropical north Atlantic east of 60W by tonight.
Reinforcing NW swell will maintain very large combined seas north
of 25N tonight and Tue north of 25N between 35W and 60W, with
another reinforcement in the same areas late Wed through Thu.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore
Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for
more details on these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W and extends 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from
03N20W to 01N47W. No significant thunderstorm activity is evident
at this time.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 mb high pressure is centered over the northeast Gulf near
27N86W. The daily trough is in place over the west coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula. This may be supporting fresh to locally strong
NE to E winds off the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Light
and variable breezes and slight wave heights dominate the
northeast Gulf, with mostly moderate E to SE winds elsewhere with
2 to 4 ft waves. Areas of fog dominate the northern Gulf.

For the forecast, the high pressure will continue to dominate the
Gulf waters through Wed night. Expect gentle to moderate
southerly winds for the eastern Gulf, and moderate to occasional
fresh southerly winds at the western Gulf. This moist southerly
flow will continue to favor the development of marine fog across
the northern Gulf during night and early morning hours. Fresh to
locally strong winds will pulse each night into the early morning
hours near and northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula due to a thermal
trough. Southerly flow will increase and reach fresh to strong
speeds by Thu ahead of a cold front forecast to move eastward
across the Gulf on Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong ENE winds, and sea heights that range from 6 to
8 ft are in the south-central and southwest sections of the area.
Fresh to strong NE winds and 5 ft seas are ongoing in the Windward
Passage. Gentle to moderate E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted
over the northwest Caribbean, with moderate to fresh NE to E
winds and 4 to 7 ft waves elsewhere. A few passing showers are
evident across the Windward Islands.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure located
near the Bahamas and the Colombian low will sustain fresh to
strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through
midweek. Winds off the coast of Colombia might pulse to minimal
gale-force Wed and Thu nights. Fresh to occasional strong winds
are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night Mon through Thu.
Moderate long-period N swell will impact the northeastern
Caribbean and passages through midweek.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for information about
the gale warning and significant swell event.

A cold front reaches from the developing 1002 mb gale center near
32N54W to 29N65W. A pair of recent scatterometer satellite pass
indicate fresh to strong winds both ahead of and following the
front, mainly north of 28N between 30W and 65W. A few showers and
thunderstorms are active within 120 nm east of the front, north of
28N. Seas associated with the strong winds are interacting with
the longer- period large NW swell to create a large area of
confused seas in the same area as the winds. Moderate to fresh
trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted south of 15N. Wave
heights are 8 ft or greater in NW swell currently north of 20N
between 40W and 65W. Moderate winds and seas are evident
elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will move across the
central Atlantic through Mon. Minimal gale force winds are
occurring near and ahead of the front N of 28N between 40W and 57W
through Mon afternoon. Very rough seas will follow the front
affecting waters east of 60W through midweek. Looking ahead,
another frontal boundary is going to move off the Georgia/Carolinas
coast on Mon evening, bringing fresh to strong westerly winds and
rising seas to the waters off northeast Florida by Mon night.

$$
Christensen
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