[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161743
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Feb 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1705 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
subtropical Atlantic high and lower pressure over South America
will produce gale force winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea
offshore Colombia every night through early next week. During the
day, winds will remain strong to near-gale force. Seas range from
10 to 13 ft within the warning area. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
Offshore Waters Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: At 1500 UTC, a strong cold front
extends from the Texas/Lousiana Border across the far NW Gulf to
the Texas/Mexico Border. Northerly winds in the lee of the front
will increase in speed over the waters today, reaching gale force
this evening offshore of Tampico, Mexico. Gales will spread south
to offshore of Veracruz, Mexico overnight. Gales in the western
Bay of Campeche will persist into Fri night. Seas in this area
will build to near 17 ft by Fri afternoon. Conditions will improve
Sat night into Sun. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for
more details.

Gulf of Mexico Dense Fog: Southeasterly return flow has brought
abundant moisture across the west-central and northwestern Gulf.
This moisture combined with warm air over rthe NE Gulfelatively
cool shelf waters has allowed areas of marine fog, some dense to
form. This fog should persist today until the cold front moves
through.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from
02N15W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 60 nm of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE
WARNING and Dense Fog.

Ahead of the cold front described in the SPECIAL FEATURES section,
the Gulf of Mexico is experiencing fresh to strong SE to S return
flow around the western periphery of the subtropical Atlantic
high pressure. Strong S winds in the central Gulf have built an
area of 8-9 ft seas from 23N to 28N between 89W and 94W.
Elsewhere, seas are 4-7 ft except within the Florida coastal
waters, where seas are 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will continue in the Gulf
of Mexico in advance of the aforementioned cold front. The cold
front will sweep across the basin through Saturday, accompanied by
fresh to strong winds in areas outside of the GALE WARNING.
Conditions will improve basin-wide Sat night into Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on the
continued GALE WARNING for the south-central Caribbean offshore
the coast of Colombia.

Outside of the GALE WARNING, fresh to strong trades were detected
by this morning's scatterometer pass over the eastern and central
Caribbean, with moderate to fresh trades in the W Caribbean. Seas
exceed 8 ft across the central Caribbean between 72W and 81W, with
highest seas to 13 ft in the GALE WARNING area. Seas are 5-7 ft
elsewhere in the eastern and western Caribbean.

For the forecast, a persistent subtropical ridge centered north
of the area will sustain fresh to strong easterly trades through
the forecast period. An area of northerly swell will enter the
tropical Atlantic today, then persist into the weekend. Winds will
increase to strong east of the Leeward Islands tonight into Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N40W to 23N50W, then continues as a
shear line to the northern coast of Hispaniola. Scattered showers
are along the cold front north of 25N. The latest scatterometer
data shows fresh to strong N to NE winds in the lee of the front
and shear line. Seas exceed 8 ft within an area from 31N35W to
19N63W to 22N71W to 31N59W, with peak seas to 12 ft near 31N49W.
Moderate SE return flow and 4-7 ft seas prevail in the W Atlantic
waters, with lowest seas between the Bahamas and Florida. Fresh to
strong NE winds are noted in the far E Atlantic, becoming moderate
to fresh trades west of 35W. Seas east of 35W are 8-10 ft in NE
swell, and 4-7 ft in the reamining undescribed waters west of
35W.

For the forecast W of 55W: Although the shear line will dissipate
later today, a ridge building N of the area will allow winds N of
the shear line and S of 25N to increase to strong into Sat, with
seas increasing to 11 ft. A cold front will enter the waters off
NE Florida late Fri. This will support strong winds ahead and
behind the frontal boundary, N of 28N, tonight through Sat as the
frontal boundary moves eastward.

$$
Mahoney
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