[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161048
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Feb 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Tight pressure gradient between the
Bermuda High and lower pressure near northwestern Colombia will
sustain strong to near-gale force winds at the south-central
Caribbean Sea, just north of the Colombia coast through at least
Tue night. These winds are expected to peak at gale-force
overnights. Seas under these winds will be 10 to 13 ft.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front is forecast to
enter the northwestern Gulf this morning, then move southeastward
through Fri night. Northerly winds will increase to between
strong and near-gale force at the west-central Gulf by late
afternoon, then reach gale-force offshore from Tampico, Mexico by
early evening. Strong to gale-force winds will spread southward to
the western Bay of Campeche, including offshore from Veracruz,
Mexico by early Fri morning. Seas at the west-central Gulf should
build to between 10 and 13 ft by late Thu night, then peak at 13
to 17 ft and spread to the western Bay of Campeche on Fri.

For both Gale Warnings above, please read the latest High Seas
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
Offshore Waters Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

Central Atlantic Large Northerly Swell: Large, long-period NW
swell is generating seas of 12 to 13 ft north of 29N between 47W
and 56W. As this swell continues to subside today, seas should
drop below 12 ft by this evening.

Gulf of Mexico Dense Fog: Southeasterly return flow has brought
abundant moisture across the west-central and northwestern Gulf.
This moisture combined with warm air over relatively cold shelf
waters has allowed areas of marine fog, some dense to form. This
fog should persist today until the cold front moves through.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The western end of the Africa monsoon trough is near the Guinea-
Bissau coast; no significant convection is present. An ITCZ
extends westward from 02N15W to 00N28W to 00S42W. Scattered
moderate convection is along the ITCZ from the equator to 04N.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section about a Gale Warning and
dense fog.

The gradient between high pressure centered over Bermuda and lower
pressure associated with a cold front over Texas is inducing fresh
to locally strong S winds across the basin. Seas are generally 5
to 7 ft, except 7 to 9 ft in the NW Gulf. No convection is present
in the Gulf this morning.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will continue in the Gulf
of Mexico in advance of a cold front which will emerge off Texas
this morning. Strong to near gale force N winds can be expected
behind the front in the western and central Gulf Thu into Sat.
Conditions will improve Sat night into Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section about a Gale Warning
offshore Colombia.

A 1029 mb Bermuda High continues to support a generally E trade-
wind pattern across the entire basin. Outside the Gale Warning
area, strong to near-gale NE winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are
present in the central basin. Moderate to fresh winds dominate the
remainder of the basin, with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Locally strong E
to SE winds have developed in the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the persistent subtropical ridge centered north
of the area will sustain fresh to strong easterly trades through
the forecast period. An area of northerly swell will enter the
tropical Atlantic today, then persist into the weekend. Winds will
increase to strong east of the Leeward Islands tonight into Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about large NW swell at
the central Atlantic.

A weak cold front extends from 31N41W to 24N53W, then continues as
a shear line to the Turks and Caicos. N of 25N, along and within
120 nm ahead of the front, scattered moderate convection is
present. Moderate to fresh NE winds dominate the basin between the
Bermuda high and the frontal boundary and shear line, and locally
strong winds are developing N of Puerto Rico and the Leeward
Islands. Over the Bahamas and waters N and W of the Bahamas,
moderate to fresh SE winds dominate. Ahead of the front to 30W,
moderate to fresh S winds are present. Elsewhere to the S, and W
of 30W, moderate to fresh trades dominate. Over the eastern
Atlantic fresh to locally strong NE winds are present.

Outside of the area of higher swell described in the Special
Features section, seas between 65W and the cold front and shear
line are 8 to 10 ft, with 4 to 7 ft seas to the W. E of 40W, the
higher NE winds are leading to seas of 8 to 11 ft, and decaying
swell S of 15N is leading to seas of 8 to 10 ft. Elsewhere, seas
are 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the ridge building N of the area
will allow winds N of the shear line and S of 25N to increase to
strong into Sat, with seas increasing to 11 ft. A cold front
will enter the waters off NE Florida late Fri. This will support
strong winds ahead and behind the frontal boundary, N of 28N,
tonight through Sat as the frontal boundary moves eastward.

$$

KONARIK
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