[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130548
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Feb 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING:

The surface pressure gradient that exists, between the 1024 mb
34N53W high pressure center, and the comparatively lower surface
pressures that are in Colombia, will continue to support strong
to gale-force E to NE winds, and sea heights that range from 8
feet to 11 feet, near the coast of Colombia, into the latter parts
of this week.

Western Atlantic Ocean GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING:

A cold front passes through 31N74W, to the Bahamas near 24N77W
just to the east of Andros Island, through central Cuba and 20N80W
in the NW Caribbean Sea, to north central Honduras. Gale-force W
winds, and sea heights that range from 12 feet to 14 feet, are
from 30N to 31N between 73W and 79W. Strong to near gale-force W
winds, and sea heights that range from 10 feet to 13 feet, are
elsewhere from 28N to 31N between 72W and 80W winds. Expect strong
winds, and sea heights that range from 8 feet to 10 feet, in the
remainder of the area that is from 24N northward between 67W and
81W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is within 90 nm to the east of the cold front from 25N northward.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore
Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for
more details

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W, to
02N20W, to the Equator along 30W, to the Equator along 38W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 06N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 24N94W in the westernmost
part of the Gulf of Mexico. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow
spans the entire area. Earlier gale-force winds that were in the
NE corner of the area have slowed down to less than gale-force.
Strong NW winds are in the NE corner of the area. Moderate to
fresh winds cover the rest of the eastern half of the Gulf of
Mexico. Moderate or slower wind speeds are in the western half of
the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 6 feet in
the Straits of Florida. The sea heights have been ranging from 9
feet to 14 feet in the rest of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The sea
heights have been ranging from 2 feet in the NW corner of the
area, to 6 feet and 7 feet off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula,
in the western half of the Gulf of Mexico.

Strong NW winds will prevail in the NE Gulf tonight. Seas across
the eastern Gulf are 10 to 14 ft. Conditions will improve into Mon
as high pressure builds into the basin. This high pressure will
move quickly E and out of the area Mon night, allowing strong to
near gale S to SE return flow to develop over the W Gulf and
prevail into Tue night. Looking ahead, the next cold front will
emerge off of the Texas coast Thu, likely bringing strong N winds
behind it for the western Gulf for the end of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING, for the coastal waters of Colombia.

A cold front passes through the Bahamas near 24N77W just to the
east of Andros Island, through central Cuba and 20N80W in the NW
Caribbean Sea, to north central Honduras. Moderate NE winds are
within 120 nm to the SE of the cold front. Moderate to fresh N
winds are from the front northward. The sea heights have been
ranging from 8 feet to 11 feet in the Yucatan Channel. The sea
heights have been as high as 6 feet, elsewhere, from Honduras
northward from 80W westward.

Strong to near gale-force NE winds are in the Gulf of Venezuela.
Strong NE winds are within 270 nm of the coasts of Venezuela and
Colombia between 66W and 72W. Moderate N winds are within 160 nm
of the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica. Fresh to strong NE winds
are in the remainder of the area that is from 16N southward from
70W westward. The sea heights range from 8 feet to
9 feet in the Atlantic Ocean, reaching the Atlantic Ocean side of
the eastern Caribbean Sea islands. Some of those sea heights have
been between Bermuda and the southeasternmost islands. The sea
heights have been ranging from 6 feet to 9 feet in the remainder
of the eastern one-third of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights
have been ranging from 8 feet to 9 feet, elsewhere in the central
one-third of the area.

Fresh to strong NE to E trades will prevail over the central
Caribbean. Winds will pulse to gale force off the coast of
Colombia each night into Fri. A cold front from eastern Cuba to
eastern Honduras will dissipate Mon. Moderate to fresh N winds
prevail behind the front. Elsewhere, large and long- period E
swell with seas at 8 to 10 ft is over the tropical N Atlantic.
This swell will gradually subside into Mon night. In the extended
range, a building ridge north of the area will strengthen the
trades across the Caribbean on Wed and Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING that covers the areas that are from Cuba
northward from 67W westward.

A surface trough is along 28N29W 24N31W 20N33W. Precipitation:
rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on either side of the
trough.

A cold front/stationary front boundary is along 31N, and just to
the north of 31N, between 40W and 60W. A 1024 mb high pressure
center is near 34N53W.

Mostly strong, and some fresh, NE winds, and sea heights that have
been ranging from 6 feet to 9 feet, are from 22N southward
between 35W and 60W. Fresh NE winds are elsewhere from 25N
southward between 35W and 70W. Mostly fresh NE winds are from 17N
southward between 25W and 35W. Moderate or slower wind speeds are
in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights have been
ranging from 7 feet to 9 feet from 20N northward between 30W and
40W. The sea heights have been ranging from 4 feet to 7 feet in
the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front from near 31N73W to eastern Cuba will cross the
basin through the middle of the week. Strong winds and rough seas
will occur on both sides of the front, mainly north of 25N through
Tue. North of 29N, gales are expected on both sides of the front
through Mon. Rough seas will accompany these strong to gale force
winds. In the extended range, a building ridge north of the area
will strengthen the trades south of 25N on Wed and Thu.

$$
MT
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