[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Feb 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
subtropical Atlantic High and Colombia Low will continue to
support strong to gale-force E to NE winds in the south-central
Caribbean near the coast of Colombia into late week. Winds will
peak at 35 to 40 kt during nighttime. Seas with these winds will
range from 10 to 13 ft.

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front extending from
31N74W SW to Andros Island to central Cuba will move eastward
over the next few days. In the process, it will sustain near-gale
to gale force westerly winds through Mon night. Rough seas of 13
to 17 ft will accompany these winds.

For all the above Gale Warnings, please read the latest High Seas
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and Offshore Waters Forecast at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 10N15W and
continues to 09N17W. The ITCZ extends from  to just east of
Brazil at 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07S to 05N
between 20W and 40W, and from 01S to 05N between 40W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure anchored by two highs in the far western gulf
extends a ridge E to 85W while broad low pressure associated with
the passage of a front covers the remainder basin. The pressure
gradient between the two continues to support fresh to strong NW
winds E of 88W along with seas of 8 to 13 ft. Light to gentle
variable winds and seas to 7 ft are W of 90W.

For the forecast, strong NW winds will prevail in the NE Gulf
through tonight. Seas across the central and eastern Gulf are 10
to 14 ft. Conditions will improve tonight as high pressure builds
into the basin. This high pressure will move quickly E and out of
the area Mon night into Tue, allowing strong to near gale S to SE
return flow to develop over the W Gulf. Looking ahead, the next
cold front will emerge off of the Texas coast on Thu, possibly
brining strong N winds behind it for the western Gulf for the end
of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section about a Gale Warning off
the coast of Colombia.

A cold front extends from central Cuba to Honduras followed by fresh
N winds. Large and long-period E swell with seas at 8 to 10 ft is
over the tropical N Atlantic. Otherwise, subtropical surface
ridging continues to extend southward and along the remaining northern
Caribbean, thus supporting the continuation of fresh to strong winds
S of 18N and E of 82W and seas of 7 to 9 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E trades will prevail
over the central Caribbean. Winds will pulse to gale force off the
coast of Colombia each night through Thu night. The cold front
from central Cuba to Honduras will dissipate tonight. Swell over
the tropical N Atlantic will gradually subside through Mon. In
the extended range, a building ridge north of the area will
strengthen the trades across the Caribbean on Wed and Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning over the western Atlantic north of the Bahamas.

A strong cold front extends from 31N74W SW to Andros Island to
central Cuba. Strong to gale force winds follow this front, which
is also supporting scattered showers and tstms ahead of it. The
remainder subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a strong
surface ridge.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front from near 31N76W to
central Cuba will cross the basin into the middle of the week.
Strong winds and rough seas will occur on both sides of the front,
mainly north of 25N through Tue. North of 28N, gales are expected
on both sides of the front through Mon. Rough seas will accompany
these strong to gale force winds. In the extended range, a building
ridge north of the area will strengthen the trades south of 25N
on Wed and Thu.

$$
Ramos
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