[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121808
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Feb 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
subtropical Atlantic High and Colombia Low will continue to
support strong to gale-force E to NE winds in the south-central
Caribbean near the coast of Colombia into late week. Winds will
peak at 35 to 40 kt during nighttime. Seas with these winds will
range from 10 to 13 ft.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: In the wake of a cold front that has
moved east of the area, strong to gale force W to NW winds will
persist just west of the Florida Big Bend area until early this
afternoon. Seas in the northeastern Gulf are peaking at 12 to 15
ft. As high pressure builds toward the region, winds and seas will
gradually subside later this afternoon.

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front offshore of
northeastern Florida will move eastward over the next few days.
In the process, it will sustain near-gale to gale force westerly
winds through Mon night. Rough seas of 13 to 17 ft will accompany
these winds.

For all the above Gale Warnings, please read the latest High Seas
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and Offshore Waters Forecast at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean along the Guinea-
Bissau coast to offshore at 10N18W. No significant convection is
seen near this trough. An ITCZ extends from south of Liberia at
04N12W across 00N30W to just east of Brazil at 02N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted near and up to 170 nm north of the
ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a
Gale Warning for the NE Gulf.

A surface trough curves southwestward from the Florida Panhandle
to the north-central Gulf. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh
to strong NW winds and seas of 10 to 13 ft are found for the
northeastern Gulf. Fresh NNW winds and seas at 7 to 9 ft are noted
at the north-central and southeastern Gulf. A 1026 mb high over
the western Gulf is sustaining light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft
seas.

For the forecast, the cold front has moved east of the area.
Strong NW winds will prevail in the NE Gulf today, with gales
north of 28N and east of 87W this morning. Seas across the
central and eastern Gulf are 10 to 15 ft, and will gradually
subside today. Conditions will improve tonight, as high pressure
builds into the basin. This high pressure will move quickly
eastward and out of the area Mon night into Tue, allowing strong
to near gale S to SE return flow to develop over the western
Gulf. Looking ahead, the next cold front will emerge off of the
Texas coast on Thu, possibly brining strong N winds behind it for
the western Gulf for the end of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section about a Gale Warning off
the coast of Colombia.

A cold front stretches south-southwestward from western Cuba to
the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered showers are noted up to 80 nm
behind the font.  A broad 1026 mb central Atlantic high continues
to supply NE to E trades across central and eastern basin.
Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong ENE to E winds with
7 to 10 ft seas are present at the central basin. Moderate to
fresh easterly trades and 6 to 8 ft seas are evident at the
eastern basin. Moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft
are found behind the front, including the Yucatan Channel. Gentle
to moderate NE winds with seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest
of the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E trades will continue
over the central and eastern Caribbean Sea through tonight. These
winds will pulse to gale force near the coast of Colombia each
night through Thu night. The cold front will move slowly eastward
today, then dissipate tonight. Fresh N winds are expected behind
the front over the NW Caribbean through tonight. Elsewhere, large
and long-period E swell with seas at 8 to 10 ft is over the
tropical N Atlantic. This swell is affecting the Lesser Antilles
and will continue today before gradually subsiding Mon. In the
extended range, a building ridge north of the area will strengthen
the trades across the Caribbean on Wed and Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning over the western Atlantic north of the Bahamas.

A cold front extends southwestward from off the Carolina coast
through 31N78W to the Florida Straits. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 120 nm east of the
front. Near the front outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to
strong southerly winds and seas of 9 to 10 ft are seen north of
24N between 70W and the cold front. Fresh to strong westerly winds
with 9 to 11 ft seas exist behind the front. For the central and
northeastern Atlantic, a broad 1026 mb high is supporting light to
gentle winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft in northerly swell, north of
25N between 30W and 70W. Near the Canary Islands, light winds and
seas at 4 to 6 ft are seen north of 20N between the northwest
African coast and 30W. To the south, gentle to moderate NE trades
with 5 to 7 ft seas are evident from 09N to 20N between the
central African coast and 35W. Farther west, moderate to fresh NE
trades and 7 to 10 ft seas are present from 05N to 24N/25N between
35W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle monsoonal winds and 3
to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will cross the basin
into the middle of the week. Strong winds and rough seas will
occur on both sides of the front, mainly north of 25N through Tue.
North of 28N, gales are expected on both sides of the front
through Mon. Rough seas will accompany these strong to gale force
winds. In the extended range, a building ridge north of the area
will strengthen the trades south of 25N on Wed and Thu.

$$

Forecaster Chan
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net