[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121017
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Feb 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
subtropical Atlantic High and Colombia Low will continue to
support strong to gale-force E to NE winds in the south-central
Caribbean near the coast of Colombia into late week. Winds will
peak at 35 to 40 kt each overnight. Seas with these winds will
range from 10 to 13 ft.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: In the wake of a cold front that has
now moved E of the area, strong to gale force W to NW winds are
ongoing N of 28N and E of 87W. Seas in the NE Gulf have increased
to 12 to 16 ft. As high pressure builds toward the region, winds
and seas will gradually decrease this afternoon.

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front moving offshore
Florida this morning will cross the area early this week.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 30 nm either side of
the boundary. Gales are developing on both sides of the front,
and will prevail N of 28N and W of 65W through Mon. Rough seas of
up to 16 ft will accompany these gale force winds.

For all the above Gale Warnings, please read the latest High Seas
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and Offshore Waters Forecast at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Guinea near 11N15W to 09N17W. The
ITCZ extends from 09N17W to 01N35W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 01S to 03N between 20W and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a
Gale Warning for the NE Gulf.

A cold front extends from the Florida Peninsula to the western tip
of Cuba. N of this front, strong NW winds prevail. To the W, N
winds continue but speeds have diminished to mainly moderate.
Ahead of the front, offshore SW Florida and in the Florida
Straits, mainly gentle S winds are ongoing. Seas throughout the NE
Gulf are 12 to 16 ft, with areas behind the front in the SE and SW
Gulf having seas of 8 to 10 ft. Seas ahead of the front are 2 to 4
ft. In the NW Gulf, seas are diminishing from 3 to 6 ft. An
eastward moving high pressure of 1026 mb is approaching the middle
Texas coast.

For the forecast, the cold front will move E of the area this
morning. Although winds are diminishing over the western Gulf,
strong NW winds will prevail in the NE Gulf today. Seas across
the central and eastern Gulf will only gradually subside today.
Conditions will improve tonight, as high pressure builds into the
basin. This high pressure will move quickly E and out of the area
Mon night into Tue, allowing strong to near gale S to SE return
flow to develop over the W Gulf. Looking ahead, the next cold
front will emerge off of the Texas coast on Thu, possibly brining
strong N winds behind it for the western Gulf for the end of the
week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section about a Gale Warning off
the coast of Colombia.

Broad ridging associated with high pressure of 1025 mb centered
near 29N56W continues to sustain an easterly trade-wind regime
for the the majority of the basin. Outside the Gale Warning area,
fresh to strong E winds and 7 to 9 ft seas exist over most of the
Caribbean basin. The exception to the trade wind regime is over
the NW Caribbean, where a cold front has moved into the region
early this morning. Extending from the western tip of Cuba to the
Gulf of Honduras, scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm
ahead of the boundary. Behind the front, fresh N winds and seas of
5 to 7 ft dominate. For the remainder of the NW Caribbean, light
to gentle NE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft dominate.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E trades will continue over
the central and E Caribbean Sea through tonight. A cold front will
move east to central Cuba and the Cayman Islands today, then
dissipate tonight. Fresh N winds are expected behind the front
over the NW Caribbean through tonight. Elsewhere, large and long-
period E swell with seas at 8 to 10 ft is over the tropical N
Atlantic. This swell is affecting the Lesser Antilles and will
continue today before gradually subsiding Mon. In the extended
range, a building ridge north of the area will strengthen the
trades across the Caribbean on Wed and Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning over the western Atlantic north of the Bahamas.

Surface high pressure of 1025 mb centered near 29N56W extends a
ridge across the SW N Atlantic subtropical waters. The pressure
gradient between this high and the cold front exiting Florida this
morning is supporting fresh to strong S winds across the Turks
and Caicos, Bahamas, and waters to the N, but W of 72W. Elsewhere,
S of 24N, fresh to locally strong trades dominate with seas of 7
to 10 ft in NE to E swell.

For areas N of 24N and E of 72W, most areas are dominated by
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow associated with the
aforementioned ridge. A 1014 mb low pressure in the east Atlantic
at 28N30W and associated through that extends S along 30W to
around 20N is producing a zone of moderate to locally fresh N
winds W of it extending to 35W, with scattered moderate convection
E of the low and trough, to about 25W. Seas of 8 to 11 ft
encompass the area around the low pressure, with seas in the
remainder of the basin averaging 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will cross the basin
into the middle of the week. Strong winds and rough seas will
occur on both sides of the front, mainly north of 25N through Tue.
In the extended range, a building ridge north of the area will
strengthen the trades south of 25N on Wed and Thu.

$$
KONARIK
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