[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101031
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Feb 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a high
pressure center of 1029 mb that is located near Bermuda near
33N62W and lower pressure that exists over Colombia and Panama
will continue to support pulsing nighttime gale-force winds in the
south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia into the
upcoming weekend. Seas with these winds are forecast to range from
10-14 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front is forecast to
enter the NW Gulf this morning and merge with the stalled front
currently over the central Gulf. The merged front will reach from
Apalachicola, FL, to the central Bay of Campeche this evening,
and from near the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Channel by Sat
afternoon. Northerly gale-force winds are expected near Tampico,
Mexico this afternoon, and offshore Veracruz, Mexico late this
afternoon through Sat morning. Slightly higher winds of nearly 40
kt may occur in the SW Gulf on Fri night, then diminish to back
25-35 kt on Sat morning. Similar 25-35 kt winds are forecast to
persist in the central Bay of Campeche through Sat morning. Very
rough seas in the range of 11-18 ft are expected in the wake of
the front, with the highest seas occurring in the SW Gulf. The
gale-force winds off Tampico are forecast to diminish by late
tonight, and the gale-force winds off Veracruz are forecast to
diminish on Sat afternoon. Seas subside late Sat night into early
on Sun. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtmlfor more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
southwestward to 03N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ. The
ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 00N45W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 01S to 10N between 16N and 45W.


GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong cold front is forecast to bring gale-force northerly
winds to the SW Gulf until early Saturday. Please see the Special
Features section for details.

Early this morning a stationary front extends from near Pensacola,
Florida, SW to the central Bay of Campeche. No convection is
occurring with this boundary or elsewhere in the basin. Gentle to
moderate NE winds are noted behind the front with gentle to
moderate mainly SE winds ahead of it. Locally fresh winds are
occurring in the Florida Straits. Seas in the Gulf are 3 to 5 ft,
with locally 6 ft seas in the Florida Straits. Some areas of fog
are restricting visibility within about 90 nm of the lower and
middle Texas coast.

For the forecast, a cold front that will move off the Texas coast
this morning, then track east, reaching from the Florida Big Bend
to the Yucatan Peninsula by Sat. Very rough seas are expected in
the wake of the front, especially over the SW Gulf. Low pressure
is forecast to form along the cold front by Sat over the NE Gulf.
Strong to near- gale force winds are expected near this low pres
over the NE Gulf Sat night before it moves over land toward the
Georgia coast. Winds and seas will gradually diminish from W to E
late Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning that is in effect for the waters near the coast of
Colombia.

Strong NE to E trades encompass the NE, central, and SW basin,
with mainly fresh trades elsewhere. Seas are 8 to 12 ft, except 4
to 7 ft in the NW basin. No convection is noted.

For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue over the
central and NE Caribbean Sea, with fresh winds elsewhere over the
eastern Caribbean through Sat night. Fresh to strong winds will
continue in the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras through
tonight. Looking ahead, a cold front will reach the Yucatan
Channel late Sat and reach from central Cuba to offshore Honduras
late Sun. Fresh to locally strong N winds and moderate to rough
seas are expected in the wake of the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Seas across the western Atlantic have generally fallen below 12
ft, but a large area of 10 to 11 ft seas are impacting a zone S of
25N between 55W and 70W. Seas of 8 to 10 ft continue to impact N
and E facing islands of the Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, Hispaniola,
Puerto Rico, and the Lesser Antilles. Seas will continue to slowly
subside into Saturday.

A dissipating cold front is noted from 31N41W to 25N50W. To the
NW, 1029 mb high pressure is centered just SE of Bermuda. Mainly
moderate N winds are occurring between the front and high pressure
center. To the S, fresh trades dominate areas S of 23N. To the
west, gentle to moderate southerly return flow has set up to the W
and SW of the high, mainly W of 70W. To the N of the trades, E of
40W, mainly gentle winds dominate.

The weather pattern for the remainder of the Atlantic forecast
waters is influenced by high pressure located to the NE and E of
the aforementioned front. Seas across much of the basin average 8
to 10 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, large and long period northerly swell,
with seas up to 11 ft, are occurring south of 27N and east of the
Bahamas. This swell will continue to affect the area through Sat,
before gradually subsiding. A cold front will move off NE Florida
by Sat. A low pressure is expected to develop along the frontal
boundary over the NE Gulf of Mexico and move to the coast of
Georgia by Sat evening. The low will move NE, dragging the cold
front across the forecast region Sat night through Mon night.
Strong to near gale force winds and rough seas are expected on
both sides of the front, mainly N of 27N, with gale force westerly
winds likely north of 29N on Sun and Sun night.

$$
KONARIK
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