[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100549
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Feb 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a high
pressure center of 1029 mb that is located near Bermuda near
33N62W and relatively lower pressure that exists over Colombia
and Panama will continue to support pulsing nighttime gale-force
winds in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia
through the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Seas
with these winds are forecast to range from 10-14 ft. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front is forecast to
enter the NW Gulf early Fri morning and merge with the stalled
front currently over the central Gulf. The merged front will
reach from Apalachicola, FL, to the central Bay of Campeche Fri
evening, and from near the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan
Channel by Sat afternoon. Northerly gale-force winds are
expected near Tampico, Mexico Fri afternoon, and offshore
Veracruz, Mexico late Fri afternoon through Sat morning.
Slightly higher winds of nearly 40 kt may occur in the SW Gulf
on Fri night, then diminishing to back 25-35 kt on Sat morning.
Similar 25-35 kt winds are forecast to persist in the central
Bay of Campeche through Sat morning. Very rough seas in the
range of 11-18 ft are expected in the wake of the front, with
the highest seas occurring in the SW Gulf. The gale-force winds
off Tampico are forecast to diminish by late Fri night, and the
gale-force winds off Veracruz are forecast to diminish on Sat
afternoon. Seas subside late Sat night into early on Sun. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtmlfor
more details.

Atlantic Ocean Large Swell Event: 12 ft NE swell is beginning to
subside in the western Atlantic waters, with the highest seas
contained to the area from 20N to 23N and between 60W and 66W.
Large seas of 10 to 11 ft continue to affect the north and
east-facing Islands of the Bahamas and the Greater Antilles.
Seas will continue to subside Friday into Saturday, dropping
below 10 ft significant wave heights. Until then, mariners
navigating these waters can possibly encounter hazardous marine
conditions. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
southwestward to 03N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ. The
ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 03N30W to 00N40W to 00N45W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the
ITCZ/Monsoon trough axis between 15W and 35W. Similar convection
is also from 03S to 04N between 35W and 41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong cold front is forecast to bring gale-force northerly
winds to the SW Gulf from Friday until early Saturday. Please
see the Special Features section for details.

As of 0300 UTC, a stationary front stretches from near
Pensacola, Florida, southwestward to the central Bay of
Campeche. Scattered convection has moved out of the Gulf of
Mexico, isolated showers are possible over the NE Gulf into
tomorrow morning. A recent scatterometer pass revealed moderate
NE to E winds behind the front over the central and western
Gulf, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds
are ahead of the front, mainly east of 90W, where seas are 2 to
4 ft. Winds shift to E-NE west of 90W and ahead of the front.

For the forecast, the stationary front will remain through this
evening. A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf early Fri
morning and merge with the stalled front Fri evening from the
western Florida Panhandle to the central Bay of Campeche. The
front will reach from near the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan
Channel by Sat afternoon. Northerly gale-force winds and very
seas are expected behind this cold front. Low pressure is likely
to form along the frontal boundary Sat over the NE Gulf. Strong
to near-gale force winds are expected near this low pres over
the NE Gulf Sat and Sat night before it moves over land toward
the Georgia coast. Winds and seas will gradually diminish from W
to E late Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on an
ongoing Gale Warning that is presently in effect for the waters
near the coast of Colombia.

A recent scatterometer satellite pass noted strong NE to E trade
winds over the central Caribbean, Gulf of Venezuela, and
Windward passage. Strong trades are likely between 65W and 78W,
with winds reaching near-gale to gale force near the coast of
Colombia. Fresh to strong trade winds are over the eastern
Caribbean sea. Rough seas of 8 to 12 ft cover a large portion of
the central and eastern Caribbean Sea, including within the
Windward and Mona Passages. Seas will continue to build
overnight for the central and eastern Caribbean sea with the
support of strong to near-gale force trade winds.

Elsewhere, fresh trades were also noted within the Gulf of
Honduras, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Patches of shallow moisture
embedded in the trade wind flow are noted N of about 18N.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible with these
moisture patches.

For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue over the
central and NE Caribbean Sea, with fresh winds elsewhere over the
eastern Caribbean into Sat night. Gale-force winds will pulse at
night near the coast of Colombia through the forecast period.
Fresh to strong winds will continue in the Windward Passage and
Gulf of Honduras through Fri night, strongest at night. Looking
ahead, a cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel late Sat and
reach from central Cuba to central Honduras late Sun. Fresh to
locally strong N winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in
the wake of the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details about an
ongoing Atlantic Swell Significant Swell Event behind a
stationary front.

A central Atlantic weak cold front is analyzed from near 31N43W
southwestward to 25N50W and to 23N59W. A 1029 mb high pressure
center N and NW of the front is allowing for generally gentle to
moderate anticyclonic winds N and NW of the frontal boundary,
except for slighter strong winds of moderate to fresh speeds and
NE to E  in direction present S of 27N and W of the front to
near 55W. Mainly fresh to strong E winds are confined to S of
23N and W of 65W, including the areas of the Turks and Caicos,
the Old Bahama Channel, and the Straits of Florida. Fresh to
strong NE to E winds are just N of Hispaniola, spreading
westward to the northern part of the Windward Passage.
Long-period N swell, as described above under Special Features,
is driving seas of 9-14 ft toward the coasts of northeast
Hispaniola, the north coast of Puerto Rico including the Mona
Passage, the area of the Virgin Islands, and adjacent Caribbean
passages. Mariners can expect hazardous marine and coastal
conditions with these seas.

The weather pattern for the remainder of the Atlantic forecast
waters is influenced by high pressure located to the NE and E of
the aforementioned front. The pressure gradient between this
high and the lower pressures near the ITCZ results in a large
area of fresh to strong NE to E winds S of 20N and W of 30W.
Seas of 8-10 ft in due to NW swell mixing with NE swell from the
wind waves are within the area fresh to strong NE to E winds.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the earlier described stationary
front will weaken through this evening. Large and long period
northerly swell, with seas up to 13 ft, are occurring south of
27N and east of the Bahamas. Fresh to strong trade winds are
expected through the Bahamas, Straits of Florida, and Windward
Passage through Fri night. The next cold front will move off NE
Florida by early Sat. A low pressure is expected to develop
along the frontal boundary Sat over the NE Gulf of Mexico and
move to just off the coast of Georgia by Sat evening. The low
will move NE, dragging the cold front across the forecast region
Sat night through Mon night. Strong to near gale force winds and
rough seas are expected on both sides of the front, mainly N of
27N, with gale force westerly winds likely north of 29N on Sun
and Sun night.

$$
Mora
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