[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Feb 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure of 1028 mb located SW
of Bermuda combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will
continue to support pulsing winds to gale force near the coast of
Colombia at night. A recent scatterometer pass shows several wind
barbs of 35 kt over the south-central Caribbean, near the coast
of Colombian. These marine conditions are forecast to likely
persist into the upcoming weekend. Seas will peak at 13 or 14 ft
within the area of the strongest winds. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the
NW Gulf late tonight or early Fri morning, merging with a
stationary front located over the west-central Gulf. The merged
front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to the NW Yucatan
peninsula by Fri night, and from near Tampa Bay, Florida to the
Yucatan Channel by Sat afternoon. Northerly gale force winds are
expected near Tampico, Mexico Fri afternoon, and offshore Veracruz,
Mexico late Fri afternoon through early Sat. Gales could also
persist over the central Bay of Campeche into Sat morning. Very
rough seas are expected in the wake of the front, especially over
the SW Gulf. The forecast calls for northerly winds of 30 to 40
kt over the SW Gulf and building seas up to 16 or 17 ft.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Atlantic Ocean Swell Event: Large and long period northerly swell
continues to propagate across most of the Atlantic forecast
waters. This swell event is currently reaching the Bahamas, the
Greater Antilles and the Atlantic passages of the NE Caribbean as
well as the waters E of the Leeward Islands creating hazardous
marine conditions. All the Atlantic buoys located between 55W and
70W are reporting seas greater that 12 ft. Several altimeter
passes indicate seas of 10 to 15 ft in the wake of a frontal
boundary that extends 31N46W to 25N55W to 22N70W. This front will
be reinforcing over the Atlantic by Fri evening with additional
pulses of long period NW swell affecting the forecast waters. Seas
are forecast to subside below 12 ft today. The new swell event
will propagate across the north waters between 35W and 55W on Fri,
with seas building to 11 or 12 ft. Looking ahead, a developing
low pressure system near the coast of Georgia could bring seas 12
ft or greater over the waters N of 27N and E of Florida to about
70W on Sun. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the Guinea/Guinea-Bissau
border near 11N15W into the Atlantic ocean near 04N19W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N19W to 01N30W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from the equator to 04N between 15W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upcoming strong cold front is forecast to be followed by gale-
force northerly winds Friday. Please see the Special Features
section for details.

A cold front is moving across the NW Gulf and extends from SE
Louisiana to near Poza Rica, Mexico. A band of showers and
thunderstorms, some severe, is associated with the front. Frequent
lightning and strong gusty wind are likely with the storms. Fresh
NW winds are noted over the NW Gulf in the wake of the front while
moderate to fresh E to SE winds are ahead of the front. A ridge
dominates the remainder of the Gulf waters and the State of
Florida. Fresh to strong east winds with seas to 8 ft are seen in
the Straits of Florida. An altimeter pass indicates seas of 5 to 7
ft behind the front. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft E of the frontal
boundary.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will reach from
the western Florida panhandle to the south-central Bay of Campeche
this evening and stall. A stronger cold front will enter the NW
Gulf late Thu night or early Fri morning, and merge with the
stalling front. The merged front will reach from the Florida Big
Bend to the NW Yucatan peninsula by Fri night, and from near Tampa
Bay, Florida to the Yucatan Channel by Sat afternoon. Gale force
winds and very rough seas are expected in the wake of the front.
Please, see the Special Features section for more details. Strong
to near gale force winds could occur over the north-central and
NE Gulf behind the front on Sat. Winds and seas will gradually
diminish from W to E across the basin on Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect for the coastal waters of
Colombia. Please read the Special Features section for more
details.

Recent satellite derived wind data provided observations of strong
to gale force winds near the coast of Colombia, and fresh to
strong trades across the remainder of the central and east
Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong winds are over the Windward
Passage, between Jamaica and eastern Cuba, and in the lee of Cuba.
Seas are 10 to 14 ft over the south-central Caribbean, 9 to 10 ft
S of Hispaniola, 8 to 9 ft in the Windward Passage and between
Jamaica and eastern Cuba, 8 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, and 5 to 7
ft elsewhere.

Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is moving across
the area producing isolated to scattered passing showers. Some
shower and thunderstorm activity is noted between Haiti and
Jamaica, and also near 17N71W.

For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue over the
central and NE Caribbean Sea, with fresh winds elsewhere over the
eastern Caribbean through Sat. Gale-force winds will pulse at
night near the coast of Colombia through the forecast period.
Fresh to strong winds will continue in the Windward Passage, lee
of Cuba and Gulf of Honduras through late this week, strongest at
night. Looking ahead, a cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel
on Sat and move across the NW Caribbean through Sun. Fresh to locally
strong N winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the wake
of the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details about an
ongoing Atlantic Swell Event behind a central Atlantic cold
front.

As of 0600 UTC, the above mentioned cold front enters the
forecast region near 31N56W, then continues SW to near 27N51W
where it becomes stationary to near the Turks and Caicos Islands.
The tail end of the front is producing a few showers over those
islands and regional waters. Cold air stratocumulus clouds follow
the front. W of the front, a 1028 mb high pressure located near
30N71W dominates the western Atlantic, the Bahamas and Florida.
Fresh to strong winds are noted along the southern periphery of
the ridge across the Bahamas, the Old Bahama Channel into the
Straits of Florida, including the approach to the Windward
Passage.

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is influenced by a
1036 mb high pressure located NE of the Azores. The pressure
gradient between this high and the lower pressures in the
vicinity of the ITCZ results in a large area of fresh to strong
NE to E winds S of 22N and W of 30W. Seas of 8-10 ft in mixed NW
swell and NE wind waves are with these winds. Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. A line of showers and
thunderstorms extends from the Cabo Verde Islands toward the NE
to near 20N19W. This convective activity is to the SE of an upper-
level low spinning near 26N25W that is also generating some
showers.

For the forecast W of 55W, a swell event is propagating across
the forecast waters reaching the Bahamas and the Greater Antilles.
Please, see the Special Features section for details. Fresh to
strong trade winds are expected through the Bahamas, Straits of
Florida and Windward Passage through late this week. Looking ahead,
the next cold front will move off NE Florida late Fri night. A
low pressure may develop along the frontal boundary just off the
coast of Georgia by Sat evening. The low will move NE, dragging
the cold front across the forecast region Sat night through Mon
night. Strong to near gale force winds and rough seas are expected
on both sides of the front, mainly N of 27N, with gale force
westerly winds possible north of 30N on Sun.

$$
GR
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