[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090538
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Feb 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure of 1029 mb located SW
of Bermuda combined with relatively lower pressure in Colombia
and Panama supports gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia,
noted in a recent satellite scatterometer pass. Pulsing
nighttime gale-force winds will continue in the south-central
Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia, through late week. Seas
will peak at 13 or 14 ft within the area of the strongest winds.
Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the
NW Gulf late tonight night or early Fri morning, reach from
Apalachicola, FL to the central Bay of Campeche by Fri evening,
and move across the Yucatan Channel by Sat evening. Northerly
gale-force winds are expected near Tampico, Mexico Fri afternoon,
and offshore Veracruz, Mexico late Fri afternoon through early
Sat. Gales could also persist over the central Bay of Campeche
into Sat morning. Very rough seas are expected in the wake of the
front, especially in the southwestern Gulf. Winds and seas will
gradually diminish from W to E on Sun. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

Atlantic Ocean Swell Event: A weakening cold front extends from
near 31N49W southwestward to 23N60W, where it becomes a
dissipating stationary front to the southeastern Bahamas. Large
long-period NW swell at 12 to 14 ft is present to the NW and N
of the front, north of 23N and east of 65W. Rough seas have made
it as far south as 20N in mixed NW swell and E wind waves. Seas
above 12 ft will begin to abate today as the cold front
dissipates and winds subside. Large swell of 9 to 11 ft will
continue to propagate across the forecast waters reaching the
Bahamas and Greater Antilles Thur through Fri. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau
near 11N15W into the Atlantic ocean near 07N18W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N18W to 01N30W to 00N42W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 26W
and 42W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted offshore
Liberia from 03N to 05N, out to 15W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upcoming strong cold front is forecast to be followed by
gale-force northerly winds Friday. Please see the Special
Features section for details.

A cold front enters the Gulf of Mexico near Cameron, LA, and
extends SW to about 60 nm south of Tampico, Mexico. A line of
scattered strong to severe thunderstorms is 60-90 nm ahead of
the front, north of 25N. Frequent lightning and strong wind
gusts are likely with the storms. Following the front, fresh NW
winds are in the NW Gulf, while fresh to strong N winds are in
the SW Gulf. East of this activity, broad anticyclonic moderate
flow is associated with a 1029 mb high over the W Atlantic, SW
of Bermuda. Fresh winds are noted within the Straits of Florida
and offshore the N Yucatan Peninsula. Seas range from 5-7 ft
behind the front and are mainly 4 to 6 ft E of the boundary.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from the coast of
Mississippi to the south-central Bay of Campeche Thu morning
before weakening and dissipating Thu night. Scattered strong to
severe thunderstorms over the NW Gulf are likely to continue ahead
of and along the front through tonight into this morning over the
north- central Gulf. Fresh to strong northerly winds will briefly
follow this front over the west- central Gulf through tonight. A
stronger cold front will enter the NW Gulf late Thu night or early
Fri morning, reach from Apalachicola, FL to the central Bay of
Campeche by Fri evening, and move across the Yucatan Channel by
Sat evening, bringing gale force winds described in the Special
Features section above. Very rough seas are expected in the wake
of the front, especially over the SW Gulf. Winds and seas will
gradually diminish from W to E on Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the coastal waters of Colombia.
Please read the Special Features section for more details.

The latest ASCAT data reveals fresh to strong trade winds across
the central Caribbean east of 80W and eastern Caribbean north of
15N, where seas are 6 to 9 ft. Fresh to locally strong winds
over the Windward Passage, between Jamaica and eastern Cuba, and
in the Gulf of Honduras where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Otherwise,
fast-moving isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted over
waters south of the Greater Antilles, moving WSW with the trade
wind flow.

For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue over the
central and NE Caribbean Sea, with fresh winds elsewhere over the
eastern Caribbean through Sat. Gale-force winds will pulse at
night near the coast of Colombia through the forecast period.
Fresh to strong winds will continue in the Windward Passage, lee
of Cuba, and Gulf of Honduras through late this week, strongest
at night. Looking ahead, a cold front will reach the Yucatan
Channel on Sat and move across the NW Caribbean through Sun. Fresh
to locally strong N winds and moderate to rough seas are expected
in the wake of the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details about an
ongoing Atlantic Swell Event behind a central Atlantic cold
front.

A weakening cold front enters the forecast area near 31N48W and
extends southwestward to 23N60W, where it becomes stationary and
stretches to near the Turks and Caicos Islands. High pressure
filling in behind the cold front supports gentle NW winds north
of 27N and gentle to moderate NE winds south of 27N. Moderate to
fresh NE-E winds are over the waters south of 25N near the
Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, and the Northern Caribbean Islands,
including the entrance of the Windward Passage. Seas of 7 to 9 ft
in N swell are affecting the north-facing coasts of these islands.
Outside of the large swell event, 8 to 11 ft seas are affecting
the waters south of 31N between 62W and 75W.

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is influenced by a
1036 mb high pressure located N of the Azores. The pressure
gradient between this high and the lower pressures in the
vicinity of the ITCZ results in a large area of fresh to strong
NE to E winds S of 23N and W of 30W. Seas of 8-10 ft in mixed NW
swell and NE wind waves are with these winds. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the weakening cold front will remain
nearly stationary along 22N-23N through Thu evening. Fresh to
strong trade winds are expected through the Bahamas, Straits of
Florida, and Windward Passage through late week. The next cold
front will move off NE Florida late Fri night. Low pressure may
develop along the frontal boundary just off the coast of Georgia
by Sat evening. The low will move NE, dragging the cold front
across the forecast region Sat night into Sun night. Strong to
near gale force winds and rough seas are expected on both sides
of the front, mainly N of 27N, with gale force W winds possible
north of 30N Sun.

$$
Mora
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