[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022125
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Feb 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between the
subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and lower pressure
over northern Colombia will support pulsing minimal gale force
winds off the coast of Colombia tonight. Seas will peak at 10
to 12 ft with the strongest winds.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Expect winds to gale force along
with very rough seas off the coast of Veracruz from early Fri
morning through Fri evening, following a cold front sweeping
across the Gulf. Seas will peak at 10 to 15 ft with the strongest
winds.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
both gale warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near the
border of Liberia and Sierra Leone at 07N11.5W to 04N16W. The
ITCZ axis extends from 04N16W to the Equator near 30W to near the
northern coast of Brazil at 02S45W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is evident within 150 nm either side of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ between 12W and 25W, and within 300 nm
either side of the ITCZ between 25W and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the southwest Gulf waters
offshore Veracruz, Mexico. Please see the Special Features
section above for more details.

A stationary front extends from near Gulf Shores, Alabama to 1018
mb low pressure in the north-central Gulf near 27N93W to the coast
of Veracruz, Mexico near 20N96.5W. Fresh to strong NW-N winds are
west of the front along with 4 to 7 ft seas per recent in-situ
observations. Gentle to moderate SE-S return flow is noted ahead
of the front in earlier ASCAT scatterometer data. Seas are mainly
2 to 4 ft ahead of the front.

For the forecast, the stationary front will begin progressing
southeastward as a cold front later tonight and Fri. NW to N
winds to gale force and very rough seas will follow the front over
the far SW Gulf off the coast of Veracruz starting early Fri
morning and persist through the remainder of the day. Fresh to
strong N winds and moderate to rough seas will follow elsewhere
through Fri. Winds and seas will diminish from west to east
through Sat night across the Gulf as high pressure builds in the
wake of the front. Conditions will be quiescent across the Gulf
Sat night through Mon morning. Looking ahead, expect fresh to
strong S to SE return flow across the W Gulf on Mon and Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia.
Please see the Special Features section above for more details.

The subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean Sea sustains fresh
to strong easterly trade winds across the Windward Passage to
between Cuba and Jamaica, in the lee of Cuba, and also across the
central Caribbean Sea per earlier ASCAT scatterometer data. The
strongest winds are occurring off the higher coastal terrain of
Colombia, with 8 to 11 ft seas currently. Mainly gentle to
moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale NE winds will persist off
the coast of Colombia through Sat night, pulsing to minimal gale
force tonight. Fresh to strong E trades will persist in the
Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola into tonight as well. A
cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico will reach the NW
Caribbean Fri night and dissipate Sat. Moderate to fresh E trades
are expected elsewhere through Sat. Looking ahead, building high
pressure to the north will strengthen the E trades across the
central/E Caribbean and tropical N Atlantic Sun through Tue.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical ridge along 27N sustains moderate NE to E winds
south of 22N and west of 65W, with fresh to strong winds possible
near the Windward Passage entrance. Seas in these waters are 5 to
7 ft. Elsewhere west of 55W, 4 to 6 ft seas with light to gentle
flow prevails, except locally moderate winds offshore northern
Florida ahead of a cold front off the Carolinas.

Ridging extends from the SW N Atlantic to near 21N35W to near the
Azores with gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 5 ft seas in mainly
NE swell under the ridge. Surface troughing extends over the
central Atlantic, from 28N46W to 1016 mb low pressure near
24.5N38.5W to 25N34W. Winds have diminished to moderate to fresh
north of the surface trough to 30N per recent data. Moderate seas
prevail in this area along with scattered showers. Moderate to
fresh NE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere, except
locally strong winds in the lee of the Cabo Verde Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure along 27N will
shift east tonight, allowing SW winds to increase up to strong or
near-gale between NE Florida and Bermuda ahead of an approaching
cold front. The cold front will move off the NE Florida coast Fri
afternoon and will reach Sat morning from 31N59W to S Florida. On
Sun morning, the boundary will begin lifting northward as a warm
front, ahead of another cold front moving off the NE Florida coast
Sun night. The second cold front will reach from 31N72W to the NW
Bahamas by Mon morning and from 31N60W to 27N55W by Tue morning.

$$
Lewitsky
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