[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021705
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Feb 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between the
subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and lower pressure
over northern Colombia will support pulsing minimal gale force
winds off the coast of Colombia tonight. Seas will peak at 10
to 12 ft with the strongest winds.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Expect winds to gale force along
with very rough seas off the coast of Veracruz from early Fri
morning through Fri evening, following a cold front sweeping
across the Gulf.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 07N12W
to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 01S45W. Scattered
moderate convection is evident S of 06N between 12W-50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the southwest Gulf waters
offshore Veracruz, Mexico. Please see the Special Features
section above for more details.

A stationary front extends from near Panama City, Florida to a
1016 mb low pressure in the northwest Gulf near 28N94W, then
southward to 20N96W. Moderate to fresh winds are evident to the
north and west of the front/low, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Gentle to
moderate winds and 2 to 4 ft wave heights are evident elsewhere.

For the forecast, the low pressure over the NW Gulf will move to
the Carolinas through tonight. A trailing cold front will sweep
across the Gulf through Fri night. Winds to gale force and very
rough seas will follow the front over the far SW Gulf off the
coast of Veracruz starting early Fri morning and persist through
the remainder of the day. Fresh to strong N winds and moderate to
rough seas will follow elsewhere through Fri. Winds and seas will
diminish from west to east through Sat night across the Gulf as
high pressure builds in the wake of the front. Looking ahead,
expect fresh S return flow across the NW Gulf on Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia.
Please see the Special Features section above for more details.

The subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean Sea sustains fresh
to strong easterly trade winds across the Windward Passage and
the central Caribbean Sea. The strongest winds are occurring off
the higher coastal terrain of Colombia, with 8 to 10 ft seas.
Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas
are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the strong to near-gale NE winds will persist
off the coast of Colombia through Sat night, pulsing to minimal
gale force tonight. Fresh to strong E trades will persist in the
Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola into tonight as well. A
cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico will reach the NW
Caribbean Fri night and dissipate Sat. Moderate to fresh E trades
are expected elsewhere through Sat. Looking ahead, building high
pressure to the north will strengthen the E trades across the
central/E Caribbean and tropical N Atlantic Sun and Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical ridge centered near the NW Bahamas sustains
moderate NE to E winds south of 22N and west of 65W, with fresh
winds possible near the Windward Passage entrance. Seas in these
waters are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere west of 55W, light to gentle flow
prevails.

A very broad area of surface troughing extends over the central
Atlantic, along 25N between 34W and 44W. Fresh to strong winds
are noted north of the trough according to latest scatterometer
data. Moderate seas prevail in this area along with scattered
showers. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are
noted elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure will shift east
through tonight, allowing SW winds to increase up to strong or
near-gale between NE Florida and Bermuda ahead of an approaching
cold front. The cold front will move off the NE Florida coast
Fri afternoon and reach from 31N60W to S Florida Sat morning.
Looking ahead, the front will lift northward as a warm front Sun
morning, ahead of another cold front moving off the NE Florida
coast Sun night. The second cold front will reach from 31N74W to
the Florida Straits by Mon morning.

$$
ERA
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