[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020905
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Feb 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between the
subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and lower pressure
over northern Colombia will support pulsing minimal gale force
winds off the coast of Colombia early this morning and again tonight.
Seas will peak at 10 to 11 ft with the strongest winds.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Expect winds to gale force along
with very rough seas off the coast of Veracruz from early Fri
morning through Fri evening, following a cold front sweeping
across the Gulf.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W
to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 01N25W to 02N38W to
20S42W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 00N to 03N
between 20W and 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the southwest Gulf waters
offshore Veracruz, Mexico. Please see the Special Features
section above for more details.

A stationary front extends from near Panama City, Florida to weak
1019 mb low pressure in the northwest Gulf near 27N94W, then
southward to Poza Rica, Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds are
evident off the Texas and Tamaulipas coastlines, west of the
front, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds and 2 to 4 ft
wave heights are evident elsewhere. Light and moist return flow
persists across the Big Bend region of Florida, resulting in the
formation of dense fog across the area. A dense fog advisory is in
effect through 17 UTC for the waters across most of the Florida
panhandle. Mariners should exercise caution. No other significant
weather is evident.

For the forecast, the low pressure over the northwest Gulf will
move to the Carolinas through tonight. A trailing cold front will
sweep across the Gulf through late Fri. Winds to gale force and
very rough seas will follow the front over the far southwest Gulf
off the coast of Veracruz starting early Fri morning and persist
through the remainder of the day. Fresh to strong winds and
moderate to rough seas will follow elsewhere through Fri. Winds
and seas will diminish from west to east through late Sat across
the Gulf as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. Looking
ahead, expect fresh southerly return flow across the northwest
Gulf by late Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia.
Please see the Special Features section above for more details.

The subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean Sea sustains fresh
to strong easterly trade winds across the Windward Passage and
the central Caribbean Sea. The strongest winds are occurring off
the higher coastal terrain of Colombia, with 8 to 10 ft wave
heights. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas
are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the strong to near-gale NE winds will persist
off the coast of Colombia through Sat night, pulsing to minimal
gale force tonight. Fresh to strong easterly trades will persist
in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola into tonight as
well. Moderate to fresh trades are expected elsewhere through Sat.
Looking ahead, strong to near-gale force winds will continue to
pulse off Colombia Sun and Mon, with light breezes over the
northwest Caribbean, and fresh trades elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical ridge centered near the NW Bahamas sustains
moderate NE to E winds south of 22N and west of 65W, with fresh
winds possible near the Windward Passage entrance. Seas in these
waters are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere west of 55W, light to gentle flow
prevails.

A very broad area of surface troughing extends over the central
Atlantic, south of 25N between 45W and 55W, supporting gentle
breezes and moderate seas in this area. Showers and a few
thunderstorms persist along another trough oriented east to west
along 25N between 35W and 45W. Fresh E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft
seas are evident north of this trough. Moderate to fresh NE winds
and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere east of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure along 27N will
shift east through tonight, allowing SW winds to increase tonight
between northeast Florida and Bermuda ahead of an approaching cold
front. The cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast
Fri, reach from Bermuda to east- central Florida late Fri night,
then stall from 31N55W to the northwest Bahamas and South Florida
Sat. Looking ahead, the front will lift northward Sat night ahead
of another cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast Sun.
The second front will reach from Bermuda to central Cuba by late
Mon.

$$
Christensen
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