[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020615 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Feb 2 2023

CORRECTED

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING:

The surface pressure gradient, that is between the western
Atlantic Ocean subtropical ridge, and the comparatively lower
surface pressures that are in Colombia and Panama, will continue
to support pulsing minimal gale-force winds in the south central
Caribbean Sea, near the coast of Colombia, each night through
Thursday night. The sea heights are forecast to range from 8
feet to 10 feet in the areas of the comparatively-fastest wind
speeds. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore
Waters Forecasts, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for
more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: An area of low pressure has
developed along a frontal boundary over the NW Gulf near 27N95W.
A surge of cold air will push the cold front across the Gulf of
Mexico on Thu. The front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to
near Veracruz, Mexico, by early Fri morning. Fresh to strong
northerly winds and building seas will follow the front,
reaching gale force offshore Veracruz, Mexico, on Friday
morning. Seas are forecast to build 14-16 ft over the SW Gulf
with the strongest winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N11W, to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W, to
03N20W 01N30W, to the Equator along 36W, to 02N50W along the
coast of Brazil. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 06N southward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the southwest Gulf waters
offshore Veracruz, Mexico. Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES
section for more details.

A cold front passes through the Florida Panhandle, to just off
the coast of SE Louisiana. The front becomes stationary there,
to a 1018 mb low pressure center that is near 28N94W. A cold
front continues southward, from the 1018 mb low pressure center,
to the coast of Mexico near 20N96W. The front becomes stationary
at 20N96W, and it continues northwestward to the Texas Big Bend.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
isolated moderate rainshowers, are to the north and to the
northwest of the frontal boundary. Isolated moderate rainshowers
are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong
northerly winds are within 125 nm of the 1018 mb low pressure
center, from the NE quadrant to the SW quadrant. Moderate
easterly winds are within 120 nm to the north of the Yucatan
Peninsula between 89W and 92W.
Gentle wind speeds or slower have been elsewhere from the frontal
boundary eastward and southeastward. Strong to near gale-force
northerly winds, and sea heights that were ranging from 8 feet to
12 feet, were in the coastal waters of Mexico, from the cold
front westward, during the last 12 hours or so. The sea heights
were ranging from 4 feet to 7 feet elsewhere to the north and to
the northwest of the low pressure center and the frontal boundary.

Expect a mixture of IFR and MVFR conditions from Texas to
Alabama. The comparatively worst conditions in this area are LIFR
and rain/drizzle. A mixture of LIFR and IFR is in the Florida from
the Jacksonville metropolitan area, to Perry, to Gainesville, and
westward. Some MVFR to VFR conditions are in the coastal plains
of west central Florida.

Broad anticyclonic wind flow has been covering the Gulf of Mexico
from 90W eastward. The sea heights have been ranging from 2 feet
to 4 feet, elsewhere from the frontal boundary eastward and
southeastward.

Light onshore winds and abundant low level moisture are allowing
for some areas of dense fog, in the the coastal plains and in
the coastal waters, from the coast of west central Florida to
Texas. The visibilities are less than one mile with fog in some
cases, and ranging from 3 miles to 5 miles or less, in the other
cases. The marine conditions will improve throughout the
afternoon of today on Wednesday. Dense fog is expected to return
during the overnight hours and morning hours, through Wednesday
night.

Low pressure in the northwestern Gulf will move to the Carolinas
through tonight. A trailing cold front will sweep across the Gulf
through late Fri. Winds to gale force and very rough seas will
follow the front over the far southwest Gulf off the coast of
Veracruz starting early Fri morning and persist through the
remainder of the day. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough
seas will follow elsewhere through Fri. Winds and seas will
diminish from west to east through late Sat across the Gulf as
high pressure builds in the wake of the front. Looking ahead,
expect fresh southerly return flow across the northwest Gulf by
late Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING, that has been issued for the coastal
waters of Colombia.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, covering the entire Caribbean Sea. Any precipitation is
related to clusters of scattered to broken low level clouds that
are in the trade wind flow. The 24-hour rainfall total in
inches, according to the Pan American Temperature and
Precipitation Table, MIATPTPAN, for the period that ended at
02/0000 UTC, was 0.25 in Curacao.

The near gale-force to gale-force winds are within 180 nm of the
coast of Colombia between 73W and 79W. Strong NE winds 280 nm of
the coast of Colombia. Strong NE winds are blowing through the
Windward Passage. in the SW corner. Gentle to moderate NE winds
are elsewhere in much of the rest of the Caribbean Sea, except for
some strong NE winds that have been in the coastal waters of the
northern half of the coast of Nicaragua. The sea heights range
from 8 feet to 11 feet from 17N southward in the central one-
third of the area, and in the SW corner. The sea heights of 11
feet have been closer to the coast of Colombia near 77W. The sea
heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the
Caribbean Sea.

Strong NE winds will persist off the coast of Colombia through
Sat night. These winds are pulsing to minimal gale force through
early Thu morning and again Thu night. Fresh to strong easterly
trades will persist in the Windward Passage and south of
Hispaniola through Thu night as well. Moderate to fresh trades
are expected elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along 20N50W 09N47W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 200 nm to
the south of the southern end of the trough between 45W and 49W.
Isolated moderate is elsewhere within 240 nm on either side of the
rest of the surface trough.

A second surface trough is along 29N51W 24N35W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is mostly within 360
nm to the north of the trough between 30W and 45W.

A third surface trough is along 26W/27W from 23N northward.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 240 nm on either side
of the third surface trough.

A 1023 mb high pressure center is near 27N75W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 55W
westward. Light to gentle winds, and 5 feet to 7 feet sea heights
are in the areas of the anticyclonic wind flow.

A tightened pressure gradient between the trough and a ridge
north of the area supports moderate to fresh E winds north of 25N,
between 30W and 45W. This results in an area of 6-9 ft seas in NE
swell north of about 23N between 34W and 47W. Moderate to fresh
NE-E winds are evident south of 24N and east of 48W. Seas in the
waters described are 4-7 ft. Farther north and east, a surface
trough extends offshore Western Sahara supporting an area of fresh
to strong SE-E winds east of 14W near the Canary Islands where
seas are 6-9 ft.

High pressure along 28N is supporting moderate to fresh winds
south of 22N, with strong winds near the entrance to the Windward
Passage, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. The high pressure
will shift east through Thu night as a weak cold front stalls
along 30N. SW winds will increase Thu night and Fri between
northeast Florida and Bermuda ahead of another cold front. The
cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast Fri, reach
from Bermuda to east-central Florida Fri night, then stall from
31N55W to the northwest Bahamas and South Florida Sat. Looking
ahead, the front will lift northward Sat night ahead of another
cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast Sun. The second
front will reach from Bermuda to central Cuba by late Mon.

$$
mt/ec
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