[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191011
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Apr 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 06N17W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N17W to 03N25W to
01N42W to 01N50W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is
observed south of 07N and between 05W and 52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface trough is oriented just offshore the west coast of
the Florida Peninsula, producing cloudiness with isolated showers.
A 1019 mb high pressure is centered just south of Pensacola, FL.
Gentle to moderate winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail over the E Gulf.
Fresh to locally strong SE winds prevail over the western Gulf,
with 5-7 ft seas.

For the forecast, weak high pressure over the SE U.S. will slowly
move E through tonight. Through tonight, gentle to moderate winds
will prevail over the eastern Gulf, while fresh to locally strong
SE winds can be found over the western Gulf. Winds will diminish
Fri ahead of a cold front that is expected to enter the NW Gulf
Fri night. Fresh N to NE winds are expected behind the front this
weekend over the central and western Gulf. The front will reach
from the Florida Big Bend to NE Mexico by Sat night. Thereafter,
building high pressure over the southern U.S. Great Plains will
likely maintain fresh E winds across the northern Gulf into Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated showers and tstorms are noted early this morning near the
Windward Passage. Otherwise, relatively dry weather prevails
across the basin. Moderate easterly trade winds are prevalent in
the central and eastern Caribbean, except for fresh to strong in
the south-central Caribbean, within 150 nm of the coast of
Colombia. Mainly gentle winds are over the NW Caribbean, except
for moderate in the Gulf of Honduras and lee of Cuba. Seas are 3-5
ft in the eastern and central Caribbean, except for 5-7 ft off the
coast of Colombia. Seas of 1-3 ft prevail elsewhere, except for up
to 4 ft in the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail
across much of the Caribbean this week as a weak ridge persists
southeast of Bermuda. However, easterly winds are expected to
become fresh to locally strong north of Colombia this morning
through Thu. A weak surface ridge will sink southward to be
directly over the Greater Antilles by Sat, leading to gentle or
weaker winds across the entire basin Fri night through early Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N70W to 1012 mb low pressure near
27N74W. A stationary front extends southward from the low pressure
to the coast of eastern Cuba near 21N76W. A surface trough is
analyzed from 28N65W to 22N66W. Scattered showers and tstorms are
noted on satellite imagery from 27N to 31N between 63.5W and 74W,
and from 19N to 23.5N between 72.5W and 78W. Moderate N to NE
winds are located west of the front and low pressure along with
3-5 ft seas. Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds are found
near and east of the surface trough with seas of 4-6 ft. Elsewhere
north of 20N and west of 60W, winds are gentle to moderate with
3-5 ft seas.

Farther east, a high pressure ridge extends along 30N, anchored by
a 1023 mb high pressure centered near 30N54W. Gentle winds prevail
across most of the area north of 25N between 30W and 60W. Seas in
this area increase from 4 ft near 60W to 7 ft near 30W-35W due to
N swell over the eastern areas. In the tropical Atlantic, moderate
to locally fresh easterly winds are present south of 21N and
between the Lesser Antilles and Africa. Seas in these waters are
5-7 ft, with the highest seas occurring between Africa and 42W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will drift
E this morning, with the southern part dissipating and the
northern part becoming a stationary front from Bermuda to NE of
the Bahamas into late week. A strengthening Bermuda High will
introduce fresh easterly winds and higher seas north of the
Bahamas and east of Florida, tonight through at least Thu night.
Winds near a surface trough could strengthen Fri night into Sat
about midday between Bermuda and Hispaniola. A cold front is
forecast to move off the coast of NE Florida Sat night.

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net