[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190441
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Apr 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0425 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 05N17W. The ITCZ stretches from 05N17W to 01N30W to
00N43W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is observed
south of 07N and between 21W and 42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A subtropical ridge positioned over the NE Gulf of Mexico is the
most prominent feature across the basin, suppressing the
development of deep convection. The pressure gradient between the
high pressure and lower pressures over Mexico sustain fresh to
strong E-SE winds west of 89W. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft.
The strongest winds are evident off Yucatan in the eastern Bay of
Campeche and off southern Texas and NE Tamaulipas. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, weak high pressure over the SE U.S. will slowly
move E through Wed night. Through Wed night, gentle to moderate
winds will prevail over the eastern Gulf, while fresh to locally
strong SE winds can be found over the western Gulf. Winds will
diminish Fri ahead of a moderately strong cold front that is
expected to enter the NW Gulf Fri night. Fresh to strong N winds
and building seas are expected behind the front this weekend over
the central and western Gulf. The front will reach from the
Florida Big Bend to Tampico, Mexico by Sat afternoon. Thereafter,
building high pressure over the southern U.S. Great Plains will
likely maintain fresh NE to E winds across the northern Gulf into
Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to the
Bay of Honduras and no significant convection is noted in
association with this feature. A weak pressure gradient supports
gentle to moderate easterly trade winds in the central and
eastern Caribbean, along with seas of 3-6 ft. Meanwhile, light to
gentle NE winds and 2-4 ft are evident in the elsewhere in the
basin.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across
much of the Caribbean this week as a weak ridge persists southeast
of Bermuda. Easterly winds are expected to become fresh to locally
strong north of Colombia Wed into Thu. A weak surface ridge will
sink southward to be directly over the Greater Antilles by Sat,
leading to gentle or weaker winds across the entire basin Fri
through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near Bermuda to a 1012 mb low pressure
east of the NW Bahamas near 27N75W, while a stationary front
stretches from the low pressure to eastern Cuba. A few showers are
noted ahead of the frontal boundary, mainly within 120 nm. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass show fresh to strong southerly
winds with the strongest convection. Elsewhere west of 55W,
moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad
subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. Latest satellite-
derived wind data show moderate to locally fresh easterly winds
south of 22N and between the Lesser Antilles and Africa. Seas in
these waters are 5-8 ft, with the highest seas occurring off The
Gambian coast. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent in the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will drift
E tonight, with the southern part dissipating and the northern
part becoming a stationary front around Bermuda to NE of the
Bahamas into late week. A strengthening Bermuda High will
introduce fresh easterly winds and higher seas north of the
Bahamas and east of Florida, Wed night through at least Thu night.
A cold front is forecast to move off the coast of NE Florida Sat
night, bringing moderate to fresh winds.

$$
DELGADO
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net