[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181031
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Apr 18 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 06N18W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N18W to 02N27W to
01N35W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is observed from 02N to 07N between 11W and 27W, and
from 01N to 05.5N between 27W and 52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The weakening cold front that was previously over the far
southeast Gulf of Mexico has departed the basin, and now extends
from Havana, Cuba to Cancun, Mexico. A 1019 mb high pressure is
centered near the Mouth of the Mississippi River. A surface ridge
extends due southward from this high to the north coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle E winds are present near the ridge axis
between 88W-90W. To the west, fresh SE winds and 4-6 ft seas are
prevalent over the western Gulf of Mexico, west of 93W. To the
east, moderate to locally fresh NNE winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail
east of 86W and south of 28.5N. Cloudiness with isolated light
showers are near the coast of Texas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southeasterly return flow
should develop over the western Gulf, including the Bay of
Campeche, this afternoon through Wed morning. Looking ahead, a
cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf Fri night. Fresh to
strong N winds and building seas are expected behind the front
this weekend over the central and western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak cold front extends from Havana, Cuba to Cancun, Mexico.
Moderate NNE winds and seas to 5 ft are behind the front,
including the Yucatan Channel. No precipitation is noted with the
front. However, isolated showers and tstorms are seen between the
west coast of Haiti and southeastern Cuba, as well as farther west
near the coast of Belize. The remainder of the Caribbean Sea is
dominated by a relatively dry airmass that is suppressing the
development of any rainshowers.

A weak high pressure pattern supports mainly moderate trades
across the eastern and central Caribbean, except for fresh near
the coast of Colombia. Seas are 3-5 ft across the eastern and
central Caribbean. Moderate NNE winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail
across much of the NW Caribbean. Light to gentle and variable
winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail elsewhere, including the area near
Jamaica, eastern Cuba and Haiti.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail
across much of the Caribbean this week as a weak ridge persists
southeast of Bermuda. The cold front over the NW Caribbean is
forecast to dissipate by this afternoon. Easterly winds are
expected to become fresh to locally strong north of Colombia and
in the Gulf of Honduras Wed through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N73W to 1010 mb low pressure in the
NW Bahamas near 26N77W to near Havana, Cuba. A pre-frontal surface
trough is analyzed from the central Bahamas to eastern Cuba.
Scattered showers and tstorms are present along and to the east of
the front, mainly from 23N to 31N between 69W and 77.5W. Moderate
to fresh N winds and seas of 5-6 ft are west of the cold front.
Moderate to fresh S to SW winds and 5-6 ft seas extend east of the
front to 67W, north of 29N. Elsewhere within 300 nm east of the
front, moderate S to SW winds and seas to 5 ft are present.

A surface trough extends from 25N64W to 20N65W. The surface
trough is moving west-northwestward. A 1020 mb high pressure
centered near 30N54W spreads ridging east-northeastward to a 1022
mb high pressure near 35N40W. A weakening cold front extends from
31N24W to 28N35W and continues as a weakening stationary front to
28.5N47W. The gradient between the 1022 mb high pressure and 1001
mb pressure over Morocco is inducing fresh N winds and 8-9 ft seas
over the NE Atlantic, mainly N of 25N and E of 35W. Farther south
in the tropical Atlantic, fresh NE trades and 6-7 ft seas prevail
from 04N to 16N between the coast of Africa and the Lesser
Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front extending from 31N73W
to Havana, Cuba will move slowly southeastward and reach from
31N70W to Havana, Cuba this evening. Afterward, it should stall
from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and dissipate during
midweek. Looking ahead, a strengthening Bermuda High will
introduce fresh easterly winds north of the Bahamas late this
week.

$$
Hagen
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