[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180508
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Apr 18 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0455 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 06N18W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N18W to 01N33W to
00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
observed south of 05N and between Africa and NE South America.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Straits to off NE Yucatan,
then continues as a dissipating stationary front to near 22N95W. No
deep convection is noted in association with these boundaries.
The Gulf of Mexico is dominated by a 1019 mb high pressure near
the coast of SE Louisiana. Moderate to strong northerly winds and
seas of 4-7 ft are found east of 87W. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds
and wave heights of 4-6 ft are evident south of a line from SE
Texas to northern Yucatan. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the cold front should exit the Gulf on Tue as
the stationary front dissipates. Fresh to strong southeasterly
return flow should develop over the western Gulf, including the
Bay of Campeche Tue afternoon through Wed morning. Looking ahead,
a cold front is likely to enter the NW Gulf Fri night, with
increasing N winds and seas behind the front this weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends across central Cuba into the NW Bahamas
as a cold front is approaches western Cuba. Divergence aloft is
generating some isolated showers in the waters between the Cayman
Islands and Cuba. The remainder of the Caribbean Sea is dominated
by a dry airmass that is suppressing the development of showers
and thunderstorms.

A weak high pressure regime supports moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds in the central and eastern Caribbean. Seas in these
waters are 3-6 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
seas are prevalent in the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across
much of the Caribbean this week as a weak ridge persists southeast
of Bermuda. A weakening cold front over the Gulf of Mexico will
approach the Yucatan Channel tonight, then gradually dissipate at
the far northwestern basin on Tue. Easterly winds are expected to
become fresh to locally strong north of Colombia and at the Gulf
of Honduras Wed through Thu nights.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front moving away from the eastern seaboard of the United
States enters the western tropical Atlantic near 31N75W and
continues southwestward across the NW Bahamas and into the Florida
Straits. A line of showers and thunderstorms is seen on satellite
imagery north of 23N and between 72W and 77W. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass show fresh to strong southerly winds
associated with the strongest convection. Outside of the
convection, moderate to locally fresh southern winds are present
between 65W and the frontal boundary, while mainly moderate
northerly winds are found behind it. Seas in the waters west of
65W are 3-6 ft.

Another cold front enters the tropical Atlantic, but near 31N26W
to 28N39W and then becomes a stationary front to 29N48W. A few
showers are noted near this boundary. The remainder of the basin
is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge positioned between
Bermuda and the Azores. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas
of 5-8 ft are affecting the waters south of 22N and between Africa
and the Lesser Antilles, with the highest seas near 07N49W and off
the southern Cabo Verde Islands. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N75W to
the Florida Keys near 24.5N81W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are occurring ahead of the front, including the
central Bahamas. The front will gradually sink southward and reach
from 31N72W to the northwest Bahamas Tue morning, then from
31N70W to Havana, Cuba Tue evening. Afterward, it should stall
from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and dissipate during
midweek. Looking ahead, a strengthening Bermuda High will
introduce moderate to fresh easterly winds and higher seas across
the western Atlantic toward the weekend.

$$
DELGADO
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