[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121009
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Apr 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Strong to near-gale force E winds
with frequent gusts to gale-force are occurring across the
eastern gulf, mainly E of 88W. Seas range between 8 to 9 ft in
this area. Winds will be increasing to gale-force this afternoon
over the NE gulf waters as a low pressure center develops near
28N91W and moves N through tonight. Seas will peak to 11 ft with
the strongest winds. Once the low has moved inland, marine
conditions at both locations will improve by Thu afternoon.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 06N11W to 03N14W to
02N33W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted south of 06N and east of 32W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect for the NE Gulf.

A surface trough extends along 90W and S of 28W. Latest satellite
imagery depict a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the
NE Gulf due to plenty of tropical moisture and divergence aloft.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast, a low pres will develop along the trough today.
Winds will be increasing to gale-force this afternoon over the NE
gulf waters as the low develops and moves N through tonight. Once
the low has moved inland, marine conditions at both locations
will improve by Thu afternoon. For the weekend, a cold front is
forecast to enter the western Gulf which will cause winds and seas
to increase.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Showers and thunderstorm activity over northern Colombia and NW
Venezuela are also affecting the nearshore waters, while a dry
environment dominates the rest of the Caribbean Sea, suppressing
the development of deep convection. Moderate to fresh easterly
trade winds are evident in the south-central and SE Caribbean,
along with seas of 3-6 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight to
moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge E of 60W will sustain a trade-
wind regime across the entire basin through the weekend. Fresh to
strong easterly trades will continue at the south-central basin,
north of Colombia for the rest of this week, and begin at the Gulf
of Honduras on Fri night. Moderate northerly swell related to a
frontal boundary currently across the western Atlantic will enter
the Mona Passage and northeastern basin today, and then spread
southward into the southeastern basin through Thu before
dissipating by the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N54W to 24N65W, then becomes
stationary to Central Bahamas near 23N74W. A surface trough
continues from that point to 24N80W. Scattered showers are noted
near and north of this boundary. Fresh to strong easterly breezes
are present from 25N to 29N and west of 70W. Seas in these waters
are 9-11 ft. The remainder of the western Atlantic behind the
frontal boundary experiences moderate to fresh NE-E winds and 8-10
ft seas. Moderate to fresh SW winds and seas of 6-9 ft are
occurring ahead of frontal boundary, especially north of 22N and
west of 57W.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad
subtropical ridge positioned SW of the Azores. The tight pressure
gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in NW Africa
support fresh to strong NE winds north of 22N and east of 35W,
with the strongest winds occurring north of 24N and east of 30W.
Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong NE winds north of the
stationary front will prevail north of 25N and west of 68W through
today. Rough seas north of 25N produced by large NE swell should
gradually subside today. The cold front will continue slowly
moving eastward through Fri, while the stationary front should
gradually weaken and dissipate. In response, both winds and seas
should subside further Thu and Fri.

$$
ERA
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