[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120558
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Apr 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains
of Liberia near 06N11W, to 03N14W, 03N25W, and 01N33W
No ITCZ is present. Precipitation: widely scattered to
scattered strong is within 150 nm on either side of
the monsoon trough from 18W eastward. Isolated moderate
to locally strong is elsewhere from 08N southward
between 18W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A north-to-south oriented surface trough is from the
NW corner of the Caribbean Sea near 19N87W, through the
NE corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, to 28N89W in the
north central Gulf of Mexico. Strong to near gale-force
NE winds are in much of the Gulf of Mexico that is to
the east of the surface trough. An east-to-west oriented
surface trough is in the coastal plains and in the
coastal waters of NW Cuba. Moderate or slower wind
speeds are within 90 nm to the north of 23N and the
Cuba surface trough. Mostly moderate to some fresh
NE winds are from 90W westward. The sea heights range
from 7 feet to 10 feet within 180 nm to the NE of the
northern part of the surface trough. The sea heights
range from 5 feet to 8 feet, in the rest of the east
central and NE parts of the Gulf of Mexico. The sea
heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet in the rest of
the north central one-third of the area. The sea
heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet in the remainder
of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is to the north
and the northeast of the line, that runs from the
middle Texas Gulf coast to the Yucatan Peninsula.

A surface trough extends along 88W and S of 28N.
Fresh to strong easterly winds with higher seas to its
north will persist across the northeastern Gulf, and
near the Florida Keys through tonight. A low pressure
system is expected to form near the central Gulf along
the surface trough later tonight, then become better
organized and lift northward through Thu. Fresh to
strong winds and rough seas are expected at the north
central Gulf, and to persist across the northeastern
Gulf through Thu morning. Once the low has moved inland,
marine conditions at both locations will improve by
Thu afternoon. For the weekend, a cold front is forecast
to enter the western Gulf which will cause winds and
seas to increase.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model for 700 mb shows broad cyclonic wind flow
in the central one-third of the area, and in the SW
corner of the area. Anticyclonic wind flow is elsewhere
in the Caribbean Sea. The GFS model, for 250 mb and for
500 mb, shows broad anticyclonic wind flow from 80W
eastward. A surface ridge passes through 20N60W in the
Atlantic Ocean, to the NE corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Strong NE winds are in the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh NE
winds are within 270 nm of the coasts of Venezuela and
Colombia. Moderate NE winds are within 300 nm to 360 nm
to the north of Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate NE winds
are elsewhere from Jamaica eastward. Gentle winds cover
the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights
range from: 2 feet to 5 feet from Jamaica southwestward;
from 1 foot to 2 feet between Jamaica and Cuba; from
3 feet to 6 feet in the eastern one-third of the area;
from 2 feet to 6 feet between Jamaica and Colombia;
from 3 feet to 7 feet between Haiti and Venezuela; and
from 1 foot to 2 feet in the NW corner of the area.

The Atlantic ridge northeast of Puerto Rico near 20N
will sustain a trade-wind regime across the entire basin
through the weekend. Fresh to strong easterly trades will
continue at the south-central basin, north of Colombia
for the rest of this week, and begin at the Gulf of
Honduras by Fri. Moderate northerly swell related to
a frontal boundary currently across the western Atlantic
will enter the Mona Passage and northeastern basin on
Wed, and then spread southward into the southeastern
basin through Thu before dissipating by the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N55W to 27N60W, 24N66W.
The front is stationary from 24N66W, to 23N73W. An
east-to-west oriented surface trough continues from
23N73W, to 23N80W, to the coastal waters off NW Cuba.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is to the northwest of the line that runs from
31N48W, to 22N60W, to the Mona Passage. The sea heights
range from 9 feet to 12 feet from Eleuthera in the
Bahamas northeastward. The sea heights range from
9 feet to 11 feet, elsewhere, from the frontal boundary
toward the north and the northwest. Strong NE winds are
from 24N to 29N between 68W and 76W. Mostly fresh to
some strong NE winds are elsewhere from the frontal
boundary toward the north and the northwest. Moderate
NE winds are from the frontal boundary southward from
65W westward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet
from the frontal boundary southward between 60W and the
SE Bahamas. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet
elsewhere from the front and surface trough southward
from the SE Bahamas westward.

A surface ridge extends from a 1029 mb 35N32W high
pressure center, to 31N39W, 28N50W, 20N60W, to the
NE Caribbean Sea.

Strong NE winds are from 22N northward from 27W eastward,
and from 20N to 27N between 27W and 36W. Fresh NE winds
are from 16N to 27N between 25W and 40W. Moderate and
fresh NE winds are in much of the rest of the Atlantic
Ocean. An exception is gentle winds within 500 nm to the
southeast of the cold front near 27N60W, and within
370 nm to the west of Africa from 15N to 21N.

A cold front extends southwestward from east of Bermuda
across 31N55W to near 24N66W, then continues westward as
a stationary front to the central Bahamas. Strong to
near-gale force NE to ENE winds north of the stationary
front will prevail north of 25N and west of 68W through
tonight, then become fresh to strong on Wed. Very rough
seas north of 25N produced by large NE swell should
subside gradually through Wed. The cold front will
continue slowly moving eastward through Fri, while the
stationary front should gradually weaken and might
dissipate on Fri. In response, both winds and seas
should subside further Thu and Fri.

$$
mt/era
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