[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090755
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Apr 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SW Atlantic Gale Warning and Significant Swell Event: A strong
cold front has entered the western Atlantic and will sink across
the waters of NE Florida today. The front will reach from near
Bermuda to central Florida tonight, and from 31N62W to S Florida
by Mon evening. A large area of strong to gale-force N to NE winds
and high seas will build behind the front today, spreading across
the waters N of 26N and W of 65W by Tue. As the front progresses
SE, these conditions will extend westward to the east coast of
Florida from this afternoon through Mon. The Ocean Prediction
Center has issued a storm-force wind warning for the conditions
north of 31N during this event. The sea heights are expected to
reach 20-22 feet near 31N77W on tonight. The NE swell will
continue to produce sea heights of 12 ft and greater through
Tue evening. The front is expected to stall along 24N/25N by the
middle of next week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from 03N21W to 01N35W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from S of 07N between 24W and 49W.
Similar convection is from 02N to 04N between 18W and 22W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the Gulf of Mexico from 29N83W to
24.5N92.5W. A line of showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of
the front has been diminishing in the past few hours. Winds are
generally fresh from the NE behind the front and gentle to
moderate ahead of the front. Fresh to strong NW winds are noted
offshore Veracruz, Mexico due to a locally tight pressure
gradient. Seas are 5-7 ft S of 27N and W of 93W, and 2-4 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the front will move slowly SE over the central
and eastern Gulf through tonight while weakening. Fresh to locally
strong NE-E winds are expected behind the front in the N-central
and NE Gulf through mid-week. Low pres may develop along the
remnants of the front in the central Gulf Tue, deepen through Wed
night, then lift northward and inland on Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area in the
subtropical Atlantic and lower pressure over northern Colombia is
supporting moderate to fresh trades S of 18N and E of 76W, along
with seas of 4-7 ft. Gentle to moderate NE-E winds and 2-5 ft seas
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pres combined with lower pres
over northern Colombia will support pulsing fresh to strong winds
in the S-central Caribbean at night through the next several days.
Fresh trades and seas around 8 ft in the Tropical N Atlc will
subside through tonight. Weak high pressure will then prevail N of
the area Mon through mid-week ahead of a strong cold front that
will move across the SW N Atlantic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the SW Atlantic.

A cold front has entered the far SW N Atlantic waters extending
form 31N79.5W to 29.5N81W. Buoys are reporting strong NE winds
behind the front, with 5-8 ft seas on a building trend. An
elongated trough extends from 29.5N70W to across the central
Bahamas. This feature is becoming less well defined and the
associated weather has mostly cleared over the last 12 hours. East
of the cold front, winds are gentle to moderate from the SE with
5-7 ft seas.

High pressure of 1025 mb near 30N46.5W dominates the weather in
the central Atlantic. Winds are gentle north of 29N along with 4-6
ft seas in mixed easterly swell, and moderate to fresh south of
there and east of 70W. Seas are generally 5-8 ft. In the eastern
Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N19W to 24N27W. Strong NNE
winds are W of the front where seas are 8-10 ft. Otherwise, winds
are generally moderate to fresh from the NE and seas are in the
5-8 ft range in the eastern Atlantic.

For the forecast W of 55W, the elongated trough will dissipate
later this morning. A strong cold front from 31N79.5W to 29.5N81W
will usher in gale-force winds behind it behind beginning around
sunrise today. The front will then move SE, reaching from near
Bermuda to central Florida tonight, and from 31N62W to S Florida
by Mon evening. The gale-force winds will spread SE reaching to N
of 28N and W of 70W before diminishing early Mon. Meanwhile
storm-force winds will be N of 31N. Very large seas to around 20
ft will accompany these winds. The front is expected to stall and
gradually weaken along 24N/25N by mid- week.

$$
Lewitsky
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