[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090353
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Apr 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SW Atlantic Gale Warning and Significant Swell Event: A strong
cold front has entered the western Atlantic this evening and
will sink across the waters of NE Florida through early Sun. The
front will reach from near Bermuda to central Florida Sun night,
and from 31N62W to S Florida by Mon evening. A large area of
strong to gale-force N to NE winds and high seas will build
behind the front Sun, spreading across the waters N of 26N and W
of 65W by Tue. As the front progresses SE, these conditions will
extend westward to the east coast of Florida from Sunday
afternoon through Monday night. The Ocean Prediction Center has
issued a storm-force wind warning for the conditions north of
31N during this event. The sea heights are expected to reach 22
feet near 31N77W on Sunday night. The NE swell will continue to
produce sea heights of 12 feet and greater through Tuesday
evening. The front is expected to stall along 24N/25N by the
middle of next week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coastal border between
Sierra Leone and Liberia near 07N12W to 04N21W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N21W to 01N34W. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 02N to 06N between 10W and 16W, and from 03N to
05N between 18W and 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the Gulf of Mexico from the Florida
Big Bend area to the west central Gulf near 25N92W. A weakening
stationary boundary continues into the Bay of Campeche. A line
of showers and thunderstorms extends roughly 90 nm ahead of the
cold front. Winds are generally fresh from the NE behind the
front and gentle to moderate ahead of the front. A surface
trough across the Yucatan Peninsula is supporting fresh NE winds
in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Seas are 5-7 ft south of 27N and
west of 93W, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a cold front extends from 29.5N83.5W to 25N92W
continues as a dissipating stationary front to the central Bay
of Campeche near 18N94W. The cold front will move slowly
eastward over the easterly half of the Gulf through Sun. Another
low pres system, expected to develop offshore of the SE coast of
United States tonight, will drag the cold front southward across
the NE Gulf and over Florida on Sun. Fresh to locally strong E
winds are expected behind the front in the N-central and NE Gulf
through mid-week. Low pres will develop along the remnants of
the front in the N central Gulf Tue, deepen through Wed night,
then lift northward and inland on Thu.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a 1027 mb high pressure in the
subtropical Atlantic and lower pressure over Venezuela is
supporting fresh to strong trade winds in eastern Caribbean,
where seas are 5-7 ft. Winds are moderate to fresh in the
central Caribbean, with a small area of strong NE winds within
120 nm of the coastal city of Barranquilla, Colombia. Seas are 2-
4 ft in the north-central Caribbean and 4-6 ft in the south-
central Caribbean. Winds are gentle to moderate in the NW
Caribbean with 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will support pulsing
fresh to strong winds in the S-central Caribbean at night
through the next several days. Fresh trades and seas around 8 ft
in the Tropical N Atlc will subside through Sun night. Weak high
pressure will then prevail N of the area Mon through mid-week
ahead of a strong cold front that will move across the NW
Atlantic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the SW Atlantic.

A cold front has entered the far western Atlantic waters. Buoys
are reporting strong NE winds behind the front, with 5-7 ft seas
on a building trend. A surface trough extends from 30N67W,
across the SE Bahamas, to SE Cuba. This feature is becoming less
well defined and the associated weather has mostly cleared over
the last 24 hours. East of the cold front, winds are gentle to
moderate from the SE with 5-7 ft seas.

A pair of 1027 mb high pressure centers dominate the central
Atlantic pattern. Winds are gentle north of 29N, increasing to
fresh easterlies south of 25N. Seas are generally 6-8 ft. In the
eastern Atlantic, a weakening stationary boundary extends from
31N19W to 28N30W. A recent scatterometer pass found strong NNE
winds NW of the front where seas are 8-10 ft. Otherwise, winds
are generally moderate to fresh from the NE and seas are in the
6-8 ft range in the eastern Atlantic.

For the forecast, the trough will continue to shift W to the
central Bahamas through Sun night while weakening. Atlantic high
pres is drapped across the waters N of the trough, and is
producing fresh winds and seas to 9 ft E of the trough. Winds
and seas across the region will gradually diminish through late
Sun as the high pres weakens. Conditions in the western Atlantic
and coastal SE US will continue to deteriorate through Sun
behind the strong cold front. Again, refer to the Special
Features section for more details on this event.

$$
Flynn
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