[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280619
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Sep 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Major Hurricane Ian, at 28/0600 UTC, is near 25.2N
83.0W. Ian also is about 155 km/84 nm to the SW of Naples in
Florida. Ian is moving NNE, or 015 degrees, 09 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 105 knots with gusts to 130 knots.
Hurricane force wind speeds are within 35 nm of the center in
the NE quadrant, within 35 nm of the center in the SE quadrant,
within 20 nm of the center in the SW quadrant, and within 20 nm
of the center in the NW quadrant. Tropical storm force winds are
within 120 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, within 120 nm of
the center in the SE quadrant,  within 100 nm of the center in
the SW quadrant, and within 120 nm of the center in the NW
quadrant. The sea heights of 12 feet or greater are within 90 nm
of the center in the NE quadrant, within 60 nm of the center in
the SE quadrant, within 180 nm of the center in the SW quadrant,
and within 90 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum
sea heights are reaching 30 feet. The wind speeds are ranging
from 20 knots to 33 knots, and the sea heights are ranging from
8 feet to 12 feet, from 20N to 30N between 79W and 92W.
Precipitation: numerous strong covers the areas that are from NW
Cuba at 22N to Florida at 27N between 80W and 85W. Scattered
moderate to widely scattered strong is in the Atlantic Ocean and
in parts of the NW Caribbean Sea, from 19N  northward between
75W and the eastern coast of Florida. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea from 15N
northward from 77W westward. Please, read the latest NHC Public
Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and
the Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details.

A 1009 mb low pressure center is near 15N34W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong is from 14N to 18N between 31W and
37W. Only a slight increase in organization will result in the
formation of a short-lived tropical depression today, although
the environmental conditions are expected to be marginally
conducive for development. More development will become less
likely by the end of the week due to increasing upper level
winds. The disturbance is forecast to meander for the
next day or so, and turn north-northwestward by Thursday. The
chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48
hours is high. Please, read the Tropical Weather Outlook, at the
following website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W/22W, from 20N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 07N
to 20N from 25W eastward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border of
Mauritania and Senegal, to 14N20W 08N24W and 09N30W, and from
12N37W to 10N47W. The monsoon trough is broken up by the 1009 mb
low pressure center that is near 15N34W. The ITCZ is along
10N47W 12N58W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from the monsoon trough/ITCZ southward from
50W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the
remainder of the area that is from 20N southward from 60W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Major Hurricane Ian, that is moving through the SE Gulf of
Mexico.

A stationary front passes through 31N78W in the Atlantic Ocean,
to 29N82W in Florida, to 27N90W, to the coastal border of Texas
and Mexico. Strong wind speeds or faster are from 90W eastward.
Mainly moderate N winds are in the southwestern Gulf, except for
fresh to strong along the coast near Veracruz in Mexico. The sea
heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet in the western and
southwestern sections. The exception is for the range from 6
feet to 8 feet offshore Veracruz.

Major Hurricane Ian is near 24.9N 82.9W with 952 mb at 11 PM EDT
moving NNE at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with
gusts to 130 kt. Ian will move to 26.0N 82.5W Wed morning, then
inland to 27.2N 81.9W Wed evening, and weaken to a tropical
storm inland near 28.2N 81.4W Thu morning. Tropical Storm Ian
will reach 29.3N 80.8W Thu evening, 30.6N 80.8W Fri morning,
then weaken to a tropical depression near 32.7N 81.2W Fri
evening. Tropical Depression Ian will be over the southern
Appalachians late Sat.. Winds and seas will gradually diminish
across the Gulf starting Thu night as Ian continues to move
northeast of the region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information
about Major Hurricane Ian, that currently is moving through the
SE Gulf of Mexico.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow passes through the area
from Puerto Rico to Panama.  Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong covers the remainder of the SE Caribbean Sea.

It is assumed that strong to tropical storm force winds, and sea
heights that range from 7 feet to 10 feet, may be occurring in
the Caribbean Sea waters of western Cuba to the north of 20N.
Moderate E trade winds prevail are in the eastern and central
sections from 74W eastward. Gentle winds are in the SW Caribbean
Sea. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet from 77W
eastward.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N, from northern Colombia,
beyond southern Nicaragua, into the tropical NE Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: numerous strong is in parts of Colombia and
Venezuela and the coastal waters from 06N to 13N between 69W and
76W. Broad and weak upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the
vicinity in Colombia and Venezuela. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is elsewhere from 15N southward, in the SW corner of the
area.

Major Hurricane Ian is near 24.9N 82.9W with 952 mb at 11 PM EDT
moving NNE at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with
gusts to 130 kt. Ian will move to 26.0N 82.5W Wed morning, then
inland to 27.2N 81.9W Wed evening, and weaken to a tropical
storm inland near 28.2N 81.4W Thu morning. Tropical Storm Ian
will reach 29.3N 80.8W Thu evening, 30.6N 80.8W Fri morning,
then weaken to a tropical depression near 32.7N 81.2W Fri
evening. Tropical Depression Ian will be over the southern
Appalachians late Sat. Strong winds and rough seas will diminish
over the northwest Caribbean tonight as Ian continues to move
north and away from the region, although large N swell will
persist in the Yucatan Channel through late Fri. Elsewhere
gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will
persist across the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
Major Hurricane Ian, and for information about the 1009 mb low
pressure center that is near 15N34W.

One surface trough is along 30N27W 23N29W 19N32W. A second
surface trough is along 31N47W 26N45W 19N44W. An upper level
cyclonic circulation center is near 22N61W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 20N to 24N
between 58W and 63W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in
the remainder of the area that is from 18N to 27N between 52W
and 64W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 26N
northward between 20W and 53W. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 24N northward between 17W and 52W.

Moderate E winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 7
feet, are from 15N to 31N between 35W and 70W. Strong NE to E
winds are from 25N northward between 20W and 29W.

Major Hurricane Ian is near 24.9N 82.9W with 952 mb at 11 PM EDT
moving NNE at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with
gusts to 130 kt. Ian will move to 26.0N 82.5W Wed morning, then
inland to 27.2N 81.9W Wed evening, and weaken to a tropical
storm inland near 28.2N 81.4W Thu morning. Tropical Storm Ian
will reach 29.3N 80.8W Thu evening, 30.6N 80.8W Fri morning,
then weaken to a tropical depression near 32.7N 81.2W Fri
evening. Tropical Depression Ian will be over the southern
Appalachians late Sat. Expect deteriorating marine conditions
off northeast Florida starting tonight, with tropical storm or
hurricane conditions possible into Fri night. Elsewhere moderate
to fresh E to SE winds will persist.

$$
mt/sk
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