[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272346
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Sep 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Ian is centered over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico near 24N 83.2W at 2100 UTC, or 43 nm SSW of the Dry
Tortugas, FL, moving N at 9 kt. Minimum central pressure is 952
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 125 kt.
San Juan y Martinez, Cuba recorded a peak wind gust of 112 kt when
Ian passed over Cuba earlier this morning. The same station
measured 7.95 inches of rain during the 24 hr period ending at
27/1200 UTC today. The city of Pinar del Rio experienced the calm
eye of Hurricane Ian, which lasted for 1 hr 30 min. Tropical
storm force winds currently extend outward 120 nm from the center.
Seas of 12 ft or greater are occurring over the Yucatan Channel,
western Straits of Florida and southeastern Gulf of Mexico, in the
area from 22N to 26N between 81W and 86W. Peak seas are estimated
at 30 ft just to the east of the eye. Satan Shoal buoy, located
just to the SW of Key West, has been reporting seas of 15 ft in
SE waves during the past few hours. Numerous strong convection is
seen within 90 nm of the center in the SW semicircle and 120 nm
NE semicircle. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection
is noted elsewhere within 270 nm NE quadrant, 360 nm SE quadrant,
and 120 nm W semicircle. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is found elsewhere within 510 nm NE quadrant, 300 nm SE
quadrant and 210 nm W semicircle. On the forecast track, the
center of Ian is expected to pass west of the Florida Keys this
evening and approach the west coast of Florida within the
hurricane warning area on Wed and Wed night. Strengthening is
expected tonight through Wed morning. Ian is forecast to approach
the west coast of Florida as an extremely dangerous major
hurricane. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

A 1008 mb low pressure located near 14.5N34.5W is producing
scattered moderate and isolated strong convection mainly in its NE
quadrant from 14.5N to 17N between 31.5W-35W. The disturbance has
a medium chance of developing into a tropical depression within
the next 48 hours. The disturbance is forecast to meander for the
next day or so and then turn north-northwestward by Thu. Please
read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave axis is along 22W from 06N-20N,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the wave
axis from 13.5N to 18N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the SW corner of Mauritania near
17N16W to 08N26W and 09N30W. The monsoon trough resumes from the
1008 mb low near 14.5N34.5W to 10N45W. The ITCZ stretches from
10N45W to 12.5N59W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the
sections above, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted within 90 nm of the African coast between 08W and 16W, and
from 02N to 09N between 20W and 40W. Scattered moderate convection
dots the tropical Atlantic and E Caribbean from 09N-17N between
52W-63W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Major Hurricane Ian has emerged north of western Cuba and is
moving across the Straits of Florida and toward the southwest
coastal waters of Florida. Please see the Special Features
section above for details on Hurricane Ian. Strong winds and seas
exceeding 8 ft associated with Ian are located south of 27N and
east of 89W. A cold front extends from near Cedar Key, FL near
29N82.5W to near Brownsville, TX where it becomes stationary.
Fresh to strong N to NE winds are occurring N of the front and
merge across the NE Gulf with strong winds extending over 300 nmto
the NW of Ian. Seas are 5-9 ft across the area. Mainly moderate N
winds prevail over the southwestern Gulf, except fresh to strong
along the coast near Veracruz. Seas are 3-6 ft across the W and SW
Gulf, except for offshore Veracruz, where 6-8 ft seas prevail.
Scattered moderate convection is noted over the western Gulf from
19N-26N between 93W-98W.

Major Hurricane Ian will move across the southeast Gulf tonight,
passing W of the lower Florida Keys during the next few hours.
Ian is expected to strengthen further overnight, and will reach
near 25.3N 82.9W around midnight, reach near 26.6N 82.5W midday
Wed, enter the Florida west coast Wed evening, reaching near 27.6N
82W around midnight Wed, then continue moving slowly NNE across
the state Thu through Thu evening, reaching the NE Florida coast
early Fri morning. Winds and seas will gradually diminish across
the basin Fri through Sat as Ian continues to move northeast of
the Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Narrow lines and bands of moderate to strong convection extend
well south of Ian and across the NW Caribbean from 17.5N northward
and east of 79W to the Yucatan coast. Scattered clusters of
moderate to strong convection prevail across the SW Caribbean from
10N to 16N between 78W and 82W. As of 2100 UTC, strong to tropical
storm force winds are assume to still be occurring across the
Caribbean waters of western Cuba to the north of 20N. Seas of 7-10
ft persist across these near shore waters.

Elsewhere, an upper-level trough extends over the eastern
Caribbean from Puerto Rico to NW Venezuela. The upper-trough is
inducing scattered moderate and isolated strong convection to its
east, from 12N-18N between 61W-72W, including over St. Lucia and
Martinique. In the SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon trough
is inducing scattered moderate isolated strong convection
described above. Outside of Ian's circulation, moderate E trade
winds prevail over the eastern and central Caribbean E of 74W.
Gentle winds are across the SW Caribbean. Seas of 3-5 ft prevail
east of 77W.

Major Hurricane Ian is moving into the southeast Gulf of Mexico,
and will gradually exit the NW Caribbean completly tonight.
Strong winds and rough seas will diminish over the northwest
Caribbean tonight as Ian continues moving away from the region,
although large N swell will persist in the Yucatan Channel through
late Fri. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas will persist across the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate to strong convection associated with the outer
bands of Hurricane Ian are affecting waters to the west of 76W.
The strongest of this convection extends from the northwest
Bahamas to southeast Florida to the N central coast of Cuba along
78W. Sustained wnds of 25 kt and greater associated with Ian are
currently spreasing from the Straits of Florida into far southeast
Florida. For more details on Major Hurricane Ian, please see the
Special Features section above.

Elsewhere, an upper-level low located near 24N58W is inducing a
few thunderstorms near it. Moderate E winds and seas of 4-7 ft
prevail over the Atlantic from 15N-31N between 35W-70W. Farther
east, a 1014 mb low pressure near 25N26W is the remnant of
Tropical Storm Hermine. A surface trough running NE-SW goes
through the low from 27N23W to 21N28W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 26N-31N between 20W-28W. A morning ASCAT
pass shows strong NE to E winds on the north side of this low
from 25N-31N between 20W-29W.

For the forecast west of 55W, Major Hurricane Ian will move
across the southeast Gulf through Wed before moving inland and
weakening to tropical storm over Florida near 28.5N 81.5W Thu
afternoon. Ian will continue inland to 29.4N 81.2W Fri morning,
and 31.0N 81.1W Fri afternoon, before moving north of area through
Sat. The wind field asociated with Ian will expand as it moves
across Florida Wed night through Thu night, and extend into the
Atlantic coastal waters from SE Florida to the NE coasts. Strong
SE winds will extend eastward across the Atlantic to 77W during
this time. Expect deteriorating marine conditions off northeast
Florida starting Wed, with tropical storm or hurricane conditions
possible through Fri night.

$$
Stripling
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