[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Ian Local Statement Advisory Number 20
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL092022
1141 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

This product covers East Central Florida

**MAJOR HURRICANE IAN EXPECTED TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Northern Lake, Okeechobee,
      Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and Southern Lake
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Coastal Indian River,
      Coastal Martin, Coastal Saint Lucie, Coastal Volusia, Inland
      Indian River, Inland Martin, Inland Northern Brevard, Inland
      Saint Lucie, Inland Southern Brevard, Inland Volusia, Mainland
      Northern Brevard, Mainland Southern Brevard, Northern Brevard
      Barrier Islands, and Southern Brevard Barrier Islands

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 270 miles south-southwest of Orlando FL
    - 24.9N 82.9W
    - Storm Intensity 120 mph
    - Movement North-northeast or 15 degrees at 10 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

At 1100 PM, Major Hurricane Ian was located over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico, about 270 miles south-southwest of Orlando. Ian's
maximum sustained winds are 120 mph, making it a Category Three on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Ian is moving north-
northeast at 10 mph. The storm is forecast to continue north-
northeast around 10 mph tonight before turning north-northeast and
slowing in forward speed into Wednesday.

Strengthening of Ian is forecast through Wednesday, before
approaching the southwest coast of Florida as an extremely dangerous
major hurricane Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening.

As Ian approaches, tropical storm conditions will develop across
interior locations of east central Florida on Wednesday, spreading
northeastward to the Florida east coast Wednesday night into
Thursday. Large portions of east central Florida and adjacent
coastal waters will experience tropical storm conditions, with
hurricane conditions for the interior.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for all coastal east central
Florida counties and adjacent Atlantic waters. A Hurricane Warning
remains in effect for Lake, Seminole, Orange, Osceola, and
Okeechobee counties.

Significant to extensive wind impacts are expected with the onset of
Tropical Storm Force wind gusts associated with the outer bands of
Ian, beginning as early as Wednesday morning and continuing through
Thursday. Hurricane conditions are expected with the passage of the
center of the storm across inland counties. Wind impacts may linger
into Friday morning across north-central portions of east central
Florida, generally from Orlando and Cape Canaveral northward.

Major flooding impacts are expected and will begin as soon as
tonight. Widespread heavy rainfall is expected through Friday
morning across east central Florida. Storm total rainfall amounts
are forecast to range from 12 to 18 inches with localized amounts
greater than 20 inches occurring over areas north of a line from
Kissimmee to near New Smyrna Beach, 8 to 15 inches with isolated 18
inches from Melbourne to Lake Kissimmee, and 4 to 8 inches with
isolated 12 inches to the south. A Flood Watch continues for all of
east central Florida through late Thursday night. This amount of
rainfall will cause major flooding for portions of the area,
especially for locations that have already received high rainfall
amounts over the past 7 days. Creeks and rivers that are already
approaching bankfull will overflow, leading to substantial flooding.
Urban locations and low lying areas are especially susceptible, with
inundation of major roadways and flooding of structures possible.

The environment will also become increasingly favorable for the
development of tornadoes across east central Florida through early
Friday morning. A Tornado Watch is in effect for the Treasure Coast
and Okeechobee County through tonight.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
devastating impacts across east central Florida, especially north of
a line from Lake Kissimmee to Melbourne.
Potential impacts include:
    - Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their banks
      in many places with deep moving water. Small streams, creeks,
      canals, and ditches may become raging rivers. In mountain
      areas, deadly runoff may rage down valleys while increasing
      susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood control
      systems and barriers may become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover escape
      routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of raging water
      with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become very
      dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures with some weakened
      or washed out.

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts across east central Florida, including the Orlando metro.
Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts across east central Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
      of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
    - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
      homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
      uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
      Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

* SURGE:
Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across coastal east central Florida. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
      surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions, including
possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind, falling
trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move, relocate to
a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep roadways open
for those under evacuation orders.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any
orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency
Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are
unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.

It is important to remain calm, informed, and focused during an
emergency. Be patient and helpful with those you encounter.

If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city or town in
which you are staying and the name of the county or parish in which
it resides. Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay
attention for instructions from local authorities.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown!

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter
options.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of
strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around 6 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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