[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Ian Local Statement Advisory Number 20
National Weather Service Key West FL  AL092022
1136 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

This product covers the Florida Keys

**STRONG WINDS AND STORM SURGE ONGOING IN THE LOWER KEYS**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch are in effect
      for Monroe Lower Keys, Monroe Middle Keys, and Monroe Upper Keys

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 80 miles west-northwest of Key West FL or about 120 miles
      west of Marathon FL
    - 24.9N 82.9W
    - Storm Intensity 120 mph
    - Movement North-northeast or 15 degrees at 10 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

At 1100 PM EDT, the center of Hurricane Ian was located about 20 miles
north of the Dry Tortugas or about 75 miles west-northwest of Key
West. Ian is moving toward the north-northeast and this general motion
with a reduction in forward speed is forecast overnight and Wednesday,
followed by a turn toward the north on Thursday. On the forecast
track, the center of Ian will continue to pass west and northwest of
the Florida Keys during the next few hours, and approach the west
coast of Florida within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday. The
center of Ian is forecast to move over central Florida Wednesday night
and Thursday morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by late
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph, and some strengthening is
expected overnight and into Wednesday. Ian is forecast to approach the
west coast of Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane.

Impacts to the Florida Keys will continue overnight into Wednesday.
These will include damaging wind gusts of 50 to 80 mph, with the
strongest winds in the Lower Keys, storm surge flooding 1 to 3 feet
above normal high tides, and an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
and isolated tornadoes.

Storm surge from the Atlantic side is ongoing in the Lower Keys, and
water has been reported inside of houses along the southern shore of
Key West. This flooding will likely peak during the next few hours as
we pass the overnight high tide. Additional storm surge flooding from
the Gulf side is expected on Wednesday, peaking during the afternoon
high tide. Bayside flooding in the Upper Keys will linger Thursday and
Friday.


POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Potential impacts from the main wind event are now unfolding across the
Florida Keys. Remain well sheltered from dangerous wind having
additional significant impacts. If realized, these impacts include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

* SURGE:
Protect against hazardous storm surge having possible significant
impacts across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves.
    - Sections of secondary roads become weakened or washed out,
      especially in usually vulnerable low spots.
    - Minor beach erosion.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include:
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rainfall
      flooding at low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some
      streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains
      and retention ponds overflow. Some secondary road closures due
      to freshwater flooding.

* TORNADOES:
Potential impacts from tornadoes are still unfolding across the Florida
Keys. Remain well braced against a tornado event having possible
limited impacts. If realized, these impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to stay inside and away from windows. Listen for
updates and be ready in case you lose electrical power. Keep a battery-
powered radio, charged cell phone and flashlight handy.

During the peak of the storm be ready to move quickly. Keep your
shoes on and rain gear handy. Boots and athletic shoes offer the best
foot protection if you become unexpectedly exposed to the weather.

Keep your cell phone charged and in power-saving mode. If you lose
power, use it sparingly and mainly for personal emergencies and
check-ins.

Do not be a thrill seeker or risk your life for senseless photos or
videos.

Quickly move to the safest place within your shelter if it begins to
fail, preferably an interior room on the lowest floor as long as
flooding is not a concern.

If you are prone to flooding or in an area under a storm surge watch
or warning, be prepared for the possibility of a quick and dramatic
rise in water levels.

If a tornado warning is issued for your area, quickly move to the
safest place within your shelter. Protect your head and body.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For Monroe County Emergency Management Information, see
monroecountyem.com/jic
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
- For Florida Division of Emergency Management information, see
floridadisaster.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Key West FL around 6 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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