[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Ian Local Statement Advisory Number 19
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL092022
535 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

This product covers East Central Florida

**HURRICANE WARNINGS NOW IN EFFECT FOR INTERIOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch have been
      upgraded to a Hurricane Warning for Northern Lake, Okeechobee,
      Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and Southern Lake

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Northern Lake, Okeechobee,
      Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and Southern Lake
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Coastal Indian River,
      Coastal Martin, Coastal Saint Lucie, Coastal Volusia, Inland
      Indian River, Inland Martin, Inland Northern Brevard, Inland
      Saint Lucie, Inland Southern Brevard, Inland Volusia, Mainland
      Northern Brevard, Mainland Southern Brevard, Northern Brevard
      Barrier Islands, and Southern Brevard Barrier Islands

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 330 miles south-southwest of Orlando FL
    - 24.0N 83.2W
    - Storm Intensity 120 mph
    - Movement North or 10 degrees at 10 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

At 500 PM, Major Hurricane Ian was located over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico, about 330 miles south-southwest of Orlando. Ian's
maximum sustained winds are 120 mph, making it a Category Three on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Ian is moving north at 10
mph. Ian is forecast to continue north around 10 mph today before
turning north-northeast and slowing in forward speed tonight into
Wednesday.

Strengthening of Ian is forecast through Wednesday, before
approaching the southwest coast of Florida as an extremely dangerous
major hurricane Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening.

As Ian approaches, tropical storm conditions will develop across
interior locations of east central Florida on Wednesday, spreading
northeastward to the Florida east coast Wednesday night into
Thursday. Large portions of east central Florida and adjacent
coastal waters will experience tropical storm conditions. Potential
has increased for hurricane conditions near the center of Hurricane
Ian for all interior east central Florida counties, including metro
Orlando.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for all coastal east central
Florida counties and adjacent Atlantic waters. A Hurricane Warning
is now in effect for Lake, Seminole, Orange, Osceola, and Okeechobee
counties.

Significant to extensive wind impacts are expected with the onset of
Tropical Storm Force wind gusts associated with the outer bands of
Ian, beginning Wednesday mid day and continuing through Thursday.
Hurricane conditions are expected with the passage of the center of
the storm across inland counties. Wind impacts may linger into
Friday morning across north-central portions of east central
Florida, generally from Orlando and Cape Canaveral northward.
Further adjustments in the track and forward speed of Ian will lead
to adjustments in how long Tropical Storm Force wind gusts remain
over east central Florida.

Major flooding impacts are expected and will begin as soon as today,
with wind impacts arriving as early as mid day Wednesday across
interior locations. Widespread heavy rainfall is expected through
Friday morning across east central Florida. Storm total rainfall
amounts are forecast to range from 12 to 18 inches with localized
amounts up to 24 inches occurring over areas north of a line from
Lake Kissimmee to Melbourne, with southern locations receiving 6 to
8 inches with isolated totals in excess of 12 inches. A Flood Watch
continues for all of east central Florida through late Thursday
night. This amount of rainfall will cause major flooding for
portions of the area, especially for locations that have already
received high rainfall amounts over the past 7 days. Creeks and
rivers that are already approaching bankfull will overflow, leading
to substantial flooding. Urban locations and low lying areas are
especially susceptible, with inundation of major roadways and
flooding of structures possible.

The environment will also become increasingly favorable for the
development of tornadoes across east central Florida this afternoon
through early Friday morning. A Tornado Watch is in effect for the
Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County through tonight.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
devastating impacts across east central Florida, especially north
of a line from Lake Kissimmee to Melbourne.
Potential impacts include:
    - Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their banks
      in many places with deep moving water. Small streams, creeks,
      canals, and ditches may become raging rivers. In mountain
      areas, deadly runoff may rage down valleys while increasing
      susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood control
      systems and barriers may become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover escape
      routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of raging water
      with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become very
      dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures with some weakened
      or washed out.

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts across east central Florida, including the Orlando metro.
Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts across East Central Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
      of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
    - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
      homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
      uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
      Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

* SURGE:
Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across coastal east central Florida, especially north of Cape Canaveral.
Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
      surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
WATCH/WARNING PHASE - Listen to local official for recommended
preparedness actions, including possible evacuation. If ordered to
evacuate, do so immediately.

WATCH/WARNING PHASE - For those not under evacuation orders, assess
the risk from wind, falling trees, and flooding at your location. If
you decide to move, relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do
not relocate, help keep roadways open for those under evacuation
orders.

WATCH/WARNING PHASE - If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind
and allow extra time to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit.
Gas up your vehicle ahead of time.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

If heading to a community shelter, become familiar with the shelter
rules before arrival, especially if you have special needs or have
pets. Take essential items with you from your Emergency Supplies Kit.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.

It is important to remain calm, informed, and focused during an
emergency. Be patient and helpful with those you encounter.

If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city or town in
which you are staying and the name of the county or parish in which
it resides. Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay
attention for instructions from local authorities.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown!

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter
options.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of
strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around 12 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

CL
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