[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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WTUS82 KTAE 272134
HLSTAE
FLZ015-114-115-118-127-128-134-280430-

Hurricane Ian Local Statement Advisory Number 19
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL  AL092022
534 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 /434 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022/

This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia

** Major Hurricane Ian Approaching the Western Florida Coast**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
      Warning and the Storm Surge Watch has been cancelled for
      Coastal Dixie and Coastal Taylor
    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
      Warning for Coastal Franklin, Coastal Jefferson, Coastal
      Wakulla, and Inland Dixie

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Coastal Dixie,
      Coastal Franklin, Coastal Jefferson, Coastal Taylor, Coastal
      Wakulla, and Inland Dixie

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 410 miles south-southeast of Indian Pass or about 370
      miles south of Suwannee River
    - 24.0N 83.2W
    - Storm Intensity 120 mph
    - Movement North or 10 degrees at 10 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

As of 5pm EDT Hurricane Ian has continued to move across the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a category 3 hurricane. Ian is still
forecast to strengthen into a Category 4 hurricane while in the
Gulf. The forecast track has again shifted to the south and east
again, with Ian potentially making landfall as a major hurricane
around Englewood, Florida.

Although the track forecast for Ian has continued to shift south and
east, the wind field is forecast to expand in size meaning the
southeast Florida Big Bend still has the potential for tropical
storm force winds. Confidence has grown that impacts for the tri-
state area will be limited as Ian has tracked south.

A fairly tight rainfall gradient remains forecast on the western
side of Hurricane Ian, with totals continuing to decrease for
southeast Alabama, the western Florida Panhandle, and the western
portions of the Florida Big bend. The latest forecast, widespread
rainfall totals of 1.5 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts
possible across the Florida Big Bend and western Georgia. 3 to 6
inches of rainfall is possible from south central Georgia to the
rest of the Florida Big Bed. Rainfall totals quickly dropping off
west of the Apalachicola and Flint Rivers.

The Storm Surge Watch has been cancelled. Tropical Storm Watches for
all coastal zones from Indian Pass east towards the Suwanee River
and inland Dixie County have been upgraded to Tropical Storm
Warnings. Tropical Storm Warnings continue for our marine zones in
the Gulf of Mexico.

Forecast confidence has grown as Hurricane Ian continues to track
further south and east. We will continue provide additional details
on Ian over the next several advisory cycles.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
across coastal and southeast Florida Big Bend. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across the Florida Big Bend.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across southeast Florida Big Bend. Potential
impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become
      dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become
      stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited
to significant impacts across portions of eastern Georgia, along and
east of 1-75.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* SURGE:
Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across Apalachee Bay Coast from Indian Pass east towards
the Suwanee River. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
      surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* TORNADOES:
Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time across eastern
Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and
southwestern Georgia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tallahassee FL around 11 PM, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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