[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Ian Local Statement Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
National Weather Service Miami FL  AL092022
214 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

This product covers South Florida

**Increasing Concern For Storm Surge Along The Southwest Florida
Coast**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning, Tropical Storm Warning, and Hurricane
      Watch are in effect for Coastal Collier
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
      Glades, Hendry, and Inland Collier
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
      for Mainland Monroe
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Coastal Palm Beach,
      Inland Palm Beach, and Metro Palm Beach
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch are in effect for
      Far South Miami-Dade
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Coastal Broward,
      Coastal Miami-Dade, Inland Broward, Inland Miami-Dade, Metro
      Broward, and Metro Miami-Dade

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 200 miles south-southwest of Naples FL
    - 23.5N 83.3W
    - Storm Intensity 120 mph
    - Movement North or 10 degrees at 10 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Ian made landfall over western Cuba as a major hurricane
earlier this morning, and is forecast to continue strengthening as it
enters the Gulf of Mexico waters this morning. While a direct landfall
to South Florida remains unlikely at this time, eastward shifts in the
forecast track means increasing concern for greater impacts across our
region. Hazardous conditions will extend well away from the center of
the system. The following hazardous conditions can be expected for
South Florida:

* Peak storm surge values of 5 to 9 feet are expected particularly in
surge prone areas between Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee. Peak storm
surge values of 4 to 6 feet are the main concern from Chokoloskee to
East Cape Sable and 2 to 4 feet from East Cape Sable to Card Sound
Road along Florida Bay. The storm surge concern will begin tonight
with peak values sometime on wednesday. Due to slow motion of the
system, surge will be slow to subside and is likely to impact the
region through late week. This could lead to significant and
life-threatening storm surge flooding particularly along the Collier
county coast.

* Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall associated with rainbands may lead
to flooding across all of South Florida. Rainfall totals may range
4 to 8 inches through Thursday with locally higher totals possible.
Flash flooding will be possible in this environment.

* Tornadoes embedded in showers and thunderstorms within the outer
rainbands associated with the system were observed this morning, and
will continue to be possible through wednesday.

* Hazardous marine and beach conditions are expected, as a high risk
for rip currents is in effect across all South Florida beaches.
Dangerous surf conditions are expected along the Gulf coast.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible extensive
impacts across coastal Southwest Florida. Potential impacts in this
area include:
    - Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
      accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings,
      with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating
      debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
      washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and
      barriers may become stressed.
    - Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
    - Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
      small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.

Also, protect against life-threatening surge having possible
significant impacts along portions of Florida Bay in extreme far
southern Miami-Dade county adjacent to Everglades National Park.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across South Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Ditches and canals may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple
      places. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets, parking lots and underpasses become submerged. Driving
      conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with
      some weakened or washed out.

* WIND:
Protect against dangerous wind having possible extensive impacts
across portions of Southwest Florida and around and west of Lake
Okeechobee. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible significant
impacts across portions of Palm Beach County. Elsewhere across South
Florida limited impacts are possible mostly associated with the
possibility of seeing gusts to tropical storm force.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts across South Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
      of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
    - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
      homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
      uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
      Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:

Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible and or mandatory evacuation. If ordered to
evacuate, do so immediately.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Miami FL around 5 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.

$$
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