[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271021
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Sep 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Ian has strengthened into a Major Hurricane early this
morning. Hurricane Ian is centered near 22.3N 83.7W at 27/0900 UTC or 0
nm S of the city of Pinar Del Rio Cuba moving N at 10 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Hurricane-force wind
speeds are noted within 30 nm NE quadrant, 25 nm SE quadrant, and
20 nm W semicircle. Tropical storm force winds extend within 100
nm E semicircle, 70 nm SW semicircle, and 90 nm NW semicircle.
Seas of 12 ft are greater extend 150 nm from the center in the E
semicircle and 90 nm in the W semicircle, with peak seas reaching
26 ft. Strong winds and seas of 8 ft or higher extend from 18N to
25N between 79W and 87W. Numerous strong convection is noted
within 150 nm of the center, with a broad area of scattered
moderate convection from 20N to 26N between 75W and 85W.
Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details.

A 1008 mb low pressure located several hundred miles west of the
Cabo Verde Islands, near 14N35W. is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms, with scattered convection from 11N to 16N
between 30W and 41W. Fresh to strong winds are 150 nm from the
center NW semicircle and 90 nm SE semicircle, and peak seas are
around 8 ft. While the system has not become better organized
since yesterday, environmental conditions are expected to be
sufficiently conducive for the system to become a tropical
depression during the next couple of days. Further development
will become less likely by the end of the week due to strong
upper-level winds. The disturbance is forecast to meander for the
next day or so and then turn north-northwestward by early
Thursday. Please, read the Tropical Weather Outlook, at the
following website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave emerged off the African coast
overnight and is now located along 19W, from 20N southward, moving
W at 10 to 15 kt. Dry Saharan air encompasses this wave at the
low-levels, preclude any significant convection at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the SW corner of Mauritania, to
08N24W and 08N32W. The ITCZ stretches from 09N43W to 09N47W to
13N59W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of the monsoon
through to as far S as 03N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Hurricane Ian.

A weak cold front stretches from the Florida Big Bend to Deep
South Texas. Scattered moderate convection is located along and
about 180 nm S of the boundary in the NW Gulf, W of 90W.

Aside from higher winds in the SE Gulf associated with Ian, fresh
NE winds are occurring N of the front, with generally moderate NE
winds elsewhere. Locally fresh NW winds have developed offshore
Veracruz, Mexico. As the overall wind flow has increased
overnight, seas have also now increased and average 3 to 6 ft
across the basin.

Major Hurricane Ian will move to 23.7N 83.7W this afternoon,
25.4N 83.5W Wed morning, and 26.7N 83.1W Wed afternoon. Category
Three Hurricane Ian will reach 27.6N 82.6W Thu morning, then move
inland to 28.3N 82.2W Thu afternoon. Ian will weakening to a
tropical storm inland near 29.0N 82.0W Fri morning. Ian will
weaken to a tropical depression while moving inland over southern
Georgia early Sat. Expect hazardous conditions in the southeastern
Gulf and Straits of Florida spreading north and northwestward
across the E Gulf through early Fri.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Hurricane Ian.

Away from the NW Caribbean and the influence of Ian, scattered
moderate convection is being induced by convergent low level
winds in a band from the middle Lesser Antilles to S of the
Greater Antilles. The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N, from
northern Colombia, beyond northern Costa Rica, into the tropical
NE Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate convection is noted in
association with the trough S of 13N and W of 7W.

Winds are generally moderate in the central and eastern basin, and
light to gentle in the SW. Seas are 3 to 5 ft.

Major Hurricane Ian will move to 23.7N 83.7W this afternoon,
25.4N 83.5W Wed morning, and 26.7N 83.1W Wed afternoon. Category
Three Hurricane Ian will reach 27.6N 82.6W Thu morning, then move
inland to 28.3N 82.2W Thu afternoon. Ian will weakening to a
tropical storm inland near 29.0N 82.0W Fri morning. Ian will
weaken to a tropical depression while moving inland over southern
Georgia early Sat. Hazardous marine conditions will prevail in the
NW Caribbean through this evening, before winds and seas
gradually subside as Ian moves N of the basin.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on Major
Hurricane Ian and for the low pressure well W of the Cabo Verde
Islands that has a high chance of tropical formation in the next
48 hours.

Aside from these two features, weak high pressure dominates. A
1009 mb low pressure centered near 24N22W and associated surface
trough is inducing scattered moderate convection from 24N to 29N
between 20W and 35W. In this zone, there is also generally strong
NE winds.

Winds W of 35W and N of 10N are generally moderate and easterly.
To the S and E, with the exception of the low described above and
the other low depicted in the Special Features section, winds are
generally light to gentle. Seas are 4 to 7 ft, although an area
of northerly swell is impacting waters N of 25N between the Canary
Islands and 40W. Seas in this region are 8 to 10 ft.

Major Hurricane Ian will move to 23.7N 83.7W this afternoon,
25.4N 83.5W Wed morning, and 26.7N 83.1W Wed afternoon. Category
Three Hurricane Ian will reach 27.6N 82.6W Thu morning, then move
inland to 28.3N 82.2W Thu afternoon. Ian will weakening to a
tropical storm inland near 29.0N 82.0W Fri morning. Ian will
weaken to a tropical depression while moving inland over southern
Georgia early Sat. Strong southeasterly winds occurring well to
the E of Ian are expected to impact the Atlc waters W of 76W as
Ian moves through the Gulf of Mexico Tue night through Fri night.
Tropical storm force winds are currently forecast for the NE
Florida coastal waters Wed night through Fri evening.

$$
KONARIK
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