[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270611
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Sep 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Ian, at 27/0600 UTC, is near 21.7N
83.6W. Ian also is about 80 km/43 nm to the S of Pinar del Rio
in Cuba, and about 135 km/73 nm to the E of the NW tip of Cuba.
Ian is moving NNW, or 345 degrees, 11 knots. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 958 mb. The maximum sustained wind
speeds are 95 knots with gusts to 110 knots. Hurricane force
wind speeds are within 30 nm of the center in the NE quadrant,
within 25 nm of the center in the SE quadrant, within 0 nm of
the center in the SW quadrant, and within 20 nm of the center in
the NW quadrant. Tropical storm force winds are within 100 nm of
the center in the NE quadrant, within 90 nm of the center in the
SE quadrant,  within 60 nm of the center in the SW quadrant, and
within 90 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights
of 12 feet or greater are within 180 nm of the center in the NE
quadrant, within 120 nm of the center in the SE quadrant, within
75 nm of the center in the SW quadrant, and within 120 nm of the
center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are reaching
31 feet. The wind speeds are ranging from 20 knots to 33 knots,
and the sea heights are ranging from 8 feet to 12 feet, from 18N
to 24N between 79W and 87W. Precipitation: Upper level
anticyclonic outflow from Ian covers the Gulf of Mexico from 90W
eastward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from
27N southward from 87W eastward, in the Gulf of Mexico. Numerous
strong is within a 90 nm radius of the center of Ian. Numerous
strong covers the Bahamas from 23N northward. Scattered moderate
to widely scattered strong is from 24N northward from 70W
westward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from
14N from 70W westward in the Caribbean Sea. Please, read the
latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details.

A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 14N35W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 11N to 16N
between 30W and 41W. Fresh to strong winds are within 150 nm of
the center in the NW quadrant. Moderate to fresh winds are
within 440 nm of the center in the NW quadrant, and within 165
nm of the center in the S semicircle. The environmental
conditions are expected to be sufficiently conducive for the
system to become a tropical depression during the next couple of
days. More development will become less likely by the end of the
week, due to strong upper level winds. The disturbance is
forecast to meander for the next day or two, and turn
north-northwestward by early Thursday. The chance of formation
into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is high.
Please, read the Tropical Weather Outlook, at the following
website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W, from 20N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 100 nm on either side
of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the SW corner of Mauritania,
to 08N24W and 08N29W. The monsoon trough is broken up by the
1008 mb low pressure center that is near 14N35W. The ITCZ is
along 09N43W 09N47W, 13N59W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward from 50W
eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 180 nm
on either side of the ITCZ.
Other rainshowers are possible, from 20N southward from 60W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Tropical Storm Ian. The forecast is for Ian to impact the east
central Gulf of Mexico, starting early this morning.

Upper level anticyclonic outflow from Ian covers the Gulf of
Mexico from 90W eastward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 27N southward from 87W eastward.

A stationary front is in the coastal plains and the coastal
waters from the Florida Big Bend to the Deep South of Texas.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 90
nm on either side of the stationary front.

The GFS model for 250 mb shows anticyclonic wind flow in the
western one-third of the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS model for 500
mb and for 700 mb shows a weak inverted trough in the same area.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 27N southward from 90W westward.

A middle level to upper level trough is in the western sections
of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 91W westward.

Weak surface anticyclonic wind flow is in the northern one-fifth
of the Gulf of Mexico. The rest of the Gulf of Mexico consists
of weak and comparatively lower surface pressures. A surface
trough is along 24N83W, to Lake Okeechobee in South Florida, to
30N77W in the Atlantic Ocean. The surface pressure gradient is
comparatively flat and weak. Precipitation: isolated moderate is
from 27N southward from 92W eastward...about 700 nm to the
northwest of T.S. Ian.

The sea heights range from 2 feet to 3 feet in the SW corner,
and they range from 3 feet to 5 feet elsewhere, away from Ian.
Hurricane Ian still is in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.
The sea heights will increase more and more, once Ian enters the
eastern part of the Gulf of Mexico, during the next 12 hours or
so. Fresh to strong northerly winds are in the Louisiana coastal
waters/ offshore waters, near the stationary front. Gentle to
moderate winds are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico.

Category Two Hurricane Ian is near 21.3N 83.4W with 962 mb at 11
PM EDT moving NNW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 90 kt
with gusts to 110 kt. Ian will move to 22.8N 83.7W Tue morning,
24.5N 83.7W Tue evening, and 26.1N 83.5W Wed morning. Ian is
forecast to be a Major Hurricane near 27.2N 83.1W Wed evening,
move inland to 27.9N 82.7W Thu morning, then inland to 28.6N
82.4W Thu evening. Ian will weaken to a tropical depression
while moving inland over Georgia late Fri. Expect hazardous
conditions in the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida
spreading north and northwestward across the E and central Gulf
through early Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information
about Tropical Storm Ian, that currently is moving through the
NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow passes through the area
from Puerto Rico to NW coastal Venezuela. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is near the SE Caribbean
Sea islands from 12N to 15N between 59W and 64W. Isolated
moderate is elsewhere from Hispaniola eastward.

A weak pressure gradient is resulting in moderate to locally
fresh easterly trade winds, and sea heights that range from 3
feet to 6 feet, in the central and eastern sections. Light to
gentle southerly winds, and sea heights that range from 1 foot
to 3 feet, are in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N, from northern Colombia,
beyond northern Costa Rica, into the tropical NE Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: moderate to strong, in clusters is in Colombia
and its coastal waters. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere from 14N southward from 75W westward. Scattered to
numerous strong is in northern Nicaragua and in eastern Honduras
from 13N to 16N between 83W and 86W. This precipitation is
between the monsoon trough and Hurricane Ian.

Category Two Hurricane Ian is near 21.3N 83.4W with 962 mb at 11
PM EDT moving NNW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 90 kt
with gusts to 110 kt. Ian will move to 22.8N 83.7W Tue morning,
24.5N 83.7W Tue evening, and 26.1N 83.5W Wed morning. Ian is
forecast to be a Major Hurricane near 27.2N 83.1W Wed evening,
move inland to 27.9N 82.7W Thu morning, then inland to 28.6N
82.4W Thu evening. Ian will weaken to a tropical depression
while moving inland over Georgia late Fri. Hazardous marine
conditions will prevail in the NW Caribbean through Tue evening,
before winds and seas gradually subside as Ian moves N of the
basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
Hurricane Ian, and for information about the 1008 mb low
pressure center that is near 14N35W.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 20N northward from 40W eastward.
A surface trough is just to the west of the Canary Islands, from
29N22W, to a 1009 mb low pressure center, the remnants of
Hermine, near 24N22W, to 20N29W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 24N northward from 40W
eastward. Strong to near-gale force NE winds are from 210 nm to
510 nm of the 1009 mb low pressure center in the NW quadrant.
Fresh to strong NE winds are from 26N northward from 20W
eastward. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet from 16N
northward between 50W and 65W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 25N57W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate to locally
strong precipitaiton, cover the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward between 50W and 60W.

Moderate to fresh SE winds are from 74W westward. Moderate to
fresh winds are between 40W and 70W. Moderate wind speeds or
slower are from the monsoon trough/ITCZ southward. Gentle wind
speeds or slowers are from 03N to 23N from 30W eastward. The sea
heights range from 7 feet to 10 feet from 25N northward between
20W and 40W, to the north of the surface trough and the 1009 mb
low pressure center. The sea heights range are 6 feet or higher,
elsewhere from 14N northward from 60W eastward.
The sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet elsewhere from 60W
westward.

Category Two Hurricane Ian is near 21.3N 83.4W with 962 mb at 11
PM EDT moving NNW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 90 kt
with gusts to 110 kt. Ian will move to 22.8N 83.7W Tue morning,
24.5N 83.7W Tue evening, and 26.1N 83.5W Wed morning. Ian is
forecast to be a Major Hurricane near 27.2N 83.1W Wed evening,
move inland to 27.9N 82.7W Thu morning, then inland to 28.6N
82.4W Thu evening. Ian will weaken to a tropical depression
while moving inland over Georgia late Fri. Strong southeasterly
winds occurring well to the E of Ian are expected to impact the
Atlc waters W of 76W as Ian moves through the Gulf of Mexico Tue
night through Fri night. Tropical storm force winds are
currently forecast for the NE Florida coastal waters Wed night
through Fri evening.

$$
mt/sk
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