[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

Tue Sep 27 04:46:46 CDT 2022

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Hurricane Ian Local Statement Advisory Number 17
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL092022
546 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

This product covers East Central Florida

*Major Hurricane Ian Expected Have Significant Impacts Across East
Central Florida**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
      Warning for Coastal Indian River, Coastal Martin, Coastal Saint
      Lucie, Inland Indian River, Inland Martin, Inland Northern
      Brevard, Inland Saint Lucie, Inland Southern Brevard, Mainland
      Northern Brevard, Mainland Southern Brevard, Northern Brevard
      Barrier Islands, and Southern Brevard Barrier Islands

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
      Northern Lake and Southern Lake
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Coastal Indian River,
      Coastal Martin, Coastal Saint Lucie, Inland Indian River,
      Inland Martin, Inland Northern Brevard, Inland Saint Lucie,
      Inland Southern Brevard, Mainland Northern Brevard, Mainland
      Southern Brevard, Northern Brevard Barrier Islands, Okeechobee,
      Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and Southern Brevard Barrier Islands
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Coastal Volusia and
      Inland Volusia

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 460 miles south-southwest of Leesburg FL or about 450
      miles south-southwest of Orlando FL
    - 22.3N 83.7W
    - Storm Intensity 125 mph
    - Movement North or 355 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

At 500 AM, Major Hurricane Ian was located over western Cuba about
445 miles SSW of Orlando or 460 miles SSW of Leesburg. Ian's maximum
sustained winds are 125 mph winds, making it category three on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Ian is moving north at 12 mph.
Ian is forecast to cross western Cuba early this morning and enter the
southeast Gulf of Mexico and continue strengthening today as it moves
closer to west coast of Florida.

Ian is forecast to level off in intensity on Wednesday, turn north-
northeast, then approach and make landfall along the west central
coast Wednesday night, still as a major hurricane, while slowing its
forward speed.

With Ian's approach, tropical storm conditions will develop across the
interior east central Florida Wednesday, and spread northeast toward
the Florida east coast late Wednesday night into Thursday. With the
track continuing to gradually shift eastward, Tropical Storm
conditions will spread across a larger portion of east central
Florida, as well as the adjacent coastal waters. There is also an
increasing potential for Hurricane conditions near its center to
extend across Lake County.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for all east central
Florida counties and the adjacent Atlantic waters, except for Volusia
County. However, the Tropical Storm Watch currently in effect there
will very likely be upgraded to a warning later this morning. A
Hurricane Watch continues for Lake County, and there is the potential
that the Hurricane Watch may need to be upgraded to a Warning,
depending on the forecast track of Ian.

Significant flooding impacts are expected from Ian, and will likely
being later today, with wind impacts as early as mid day Wednesday
across the interior.

Significant to extensive wind impacts are expected with the onset of
Tropical Storm Force wind gusts associated with the outer bands of Ian
Wednesday and deteoriating wind conditions expected Wednesday night
into Thursday. Wind impacts may linger into Thursday night and early
Friday across mainly northern portions of east central Florida from
Orlando and Cape Canaveral northward depending if the system slows
further from its current forecast path.

Widespread heavy rainfall is expected through at least Thursday night
across east central Florida. Storm total rainfall amounts are forecast
to reach 5 to 10 inches with some localized spots reaching in excess
of a foot. A Flood Watch continues for all of east central Florida
through late Thursday night. Additional areal and river is likely
across much of the area.

The environment will be increasingly favorable for the development of
tornadoes across east central Florida from tonight into Wednesday and
Thursday.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible devastating
impacts across east central Florida. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof
      and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage
      greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations
      may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
    - Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Widespread power and communications outages.

Also, protect against life-threatening wind having possible
significant to extensive impacts across east central Florida.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across East Central Florida. Potential impacts
include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
      become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas, destructive runoff
      may run quickly down valleys while increasing susceptibility to
      rockslides and mudslides. Flood control systems and barriers
      may become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across East Central Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

* SURGE:
Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time across East Central
Florida.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time
to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle
ahead of time.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

It is important to remain calm, informed, and focused during an
emergency. Be patient and helpful with those you encounter.

If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city or town in
which you are staying and the name of the county or parish in which
it resides. Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay
attention for instructions from local authorities.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown!

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter
options.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of
strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around 12 Noon EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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