[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

Tue Sep 27 04:24:54 CDT 2022

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Hurricane Ian Local Statement Advisory Number 17
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL  AL092022
524 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

This product covers Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia

**TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST
OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA WITH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA COAST**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Bradford, Eastern
      Alachua, Gilchrist, Western Alachua, Western Clay, Western
      Duval, and Western Putnam

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch are in effect for
      Coastal Camden, Coastal Duval, Coastal Flagler, Coastal Glynn,
      Coastal Nassau, Coastal St. Johns, Eastern Clay, Eastern
      Putnam, Inland St. Johns, and South Central Duval
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Bradford, Central
      Marion, Eastern Alachua, Eastern Marion, Gilchrist, Inland
      Flagler, Trout River, Western Alachua, Western Clay, Western
      Duval, Western Marion, and Western Putnam

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 580 miles south-southwest of Jacksonville FL
    - 22.3N 83.7W
    - Storm Intensity 125 mph
    - Movement North or 355 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Ian, located near 22.3 north, 83.7 west at 5 AM EDT this
morning, will continue to move north today, then north-northeast
Wednesday. On this track, Ian is forecast to move into the eastern
Gulf of Mexico later today and approach the west coast of Florida
Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum winds are currently near 125 mph with
higher gusts.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect along the southeast GA and
northeast FL coastal counties as well as Bradford, Gilchrist, Putnam,
Marion, and Eastern Clay counties. A storm surge watch is in effect
for the entire coast, as well as the St Johns River.

The start of tropical storm winds may begin as early as Wednesday
across north central FL and northeast FL, and Wednesday night over
southeast GA coastal areas.

Increasing rain chances are expected Tuesday from south to north, with
more rain and rain squalls and possibly embedded thunderstorms
occurring Wednesday through Friday. Heavy rainfall and possible
flooding is to be expected, with additional flood watches likely
required. There is a concern for isolated tornadoes across parts of
northeast and north central FL through at least Thursday.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across parts of northeast FL. Potential impacts
include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
      become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may
      become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited to
significant impacts across southeast Georgia.

* WIND:
Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible extensive impacts
across the parts of northeast FL. Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, prepare for dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across southeast Georgia.

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across southeast Georgia and northeast FL coasts and the St
Johns River. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Elsewhere across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia, little to
no impact is anticipated.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
northeast Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia, little to
no impact is anticipated.

* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:

Increasing northeast winds Today and stronger winds on Wednesday
will build surf along the coast creating very dangerous surf, rip
currents as well as significant beach erosion.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

If leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time to get
there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle ahead of
time.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor
drainage area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to
move to safe shelter on higher ground.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Be sure to let friends and family members know of your intentions for
weathering the storm and your whereabouts. Have someone located away
from the threatened area serve as your point of contact. Share vital
contact information with others. Keep cell phones handy and charged.

Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are
unable to make personal preparations.

If you are a visitor, know the name of the county or parish in which
you are located and where it is relative to current watches and
warnings. If staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their
onsite disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially
pertaining to area visitors.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Jacksonville FL around 1130 AM, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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