[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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WTUS82 KTAE 270903
HLSTAE
FLZ015-114-115-118-127-128-134-271715-

Hurricane Ian Local Statement Advisory Number 17
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL  AL092022
503 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 /403 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022/

This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia

**CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE IAN MOVING OVER WESTERN CUBA**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Inland Dixie

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch are in effect for
      Coastal Dixie and Coastal Taylor
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Coastal Franklin,
      Coastal Jefferson, Coastal Wakulla, and Inland Dixie

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 550 miles south-southeast of Panama City or about 520
      miles south of Apalachicola
    - 22.3N 83.7W
    - Storm Intensity 125 mph
    - Movement North or 355 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

As of 5am EDT Hurricane Ian has made landfall on the far western
end of Cuba as a category 3 hurricane. Ian is still forecast to
strengthen into a Category 4 hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
before beginning to weaken as it approaches the northeast Gulf. The
forecast track has again shifted slightly eastward, but Ian is still
forecast to pass near the Tampa Bay area before continuing to the
north-northeast over the northern Florida Peninsula.

Although the track forecast for Ian has continued to shift slightly
south and east, the wind field is forecast to expand in size meaning
the southeast Florida Big Bend still has the potential for tropical
storm force winds and perhaps even hurricane force wind gusts. There
remains a lot of uncertainty with the forecast of Ian beyond the next
couple of days, and we will have a better idea of specific impacts
once the track and intensity forecasts become more clear.

A fairly tight rainfall gradient is forecast on the western side of
Hurricane Ian, therefore the rainfall forecast remains fairly
uncertain until the track forecasts become more certain. With the
current forecast, widespread rainfall totals of 5 to 7 inches with
isolated higher amounts is possible across the Southeast Florida Big
Bend. 3 to 5 inches of rainfall is possible from south central Georgia
to the rest of the Florida Big Bed, with rainfall totals quickly
dropping off further west.

The Storm Surge Watch remains unchanged, and inland Dixie county has
been added to the Tropical Storm Watch. Tropical Storm Watches are in
effect for all coastal zones from Indian Pass east towards the Suwanee
River and inland Dixie County. A Storm Surge watch is in effect from
the Aucilla River east to the Suwanee River.

Forecast uncertainty still remains high with Ian, but we will be able
to provide additional details on Ian over the next several advisory
cycles.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across Apalachee Bay Coast from Aucilla River east towards
the Suwanee River. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Also, prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across the rest of the Apalachee Bay from the Aucilla River
west to Indian Pass.

* WIND:
Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible extensive impacts
across the Florida Big Bend. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, prepare for dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts elsewhere across southwest Georgia.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across the southeast Florida Big Bend. Potential
impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become
      dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become
      stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited to
significant impacts across the rest of the Florida Big Bend.

* TORNADOES:
Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time across eastern
Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and
southwestern Georgia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.


* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the Gulf of Mexico or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or
poor drainage area, or near an already swollen river, plan to move to
safe shelter on higher ground.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tallahassee FL around 11 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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