[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Ian Local Statement Advisory Number 16
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL092022
1153 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

This product covers East Central Florida

**HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR LAKE COUNTY AND TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR ALL INLAND COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Hurricane Watch
      and the Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical
      Storm Warning for Northern Lake and Southern Lake
    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
      Warning for Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
      Northern Lake and Southern Lake
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Okeechobee, Orange,
      Osceola, and Seminole
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Coastal Indian River,
      Coastal Martin, Coastal Saint Lucie, Coastal Volusia, Inland
      Indian River, Inland Martin, Inland Northern Brevard, Inland
      Saint Lucie, Inland Southern Brevard, Inland Volusia, Mainland
      Northern Brevard, Mainland Southern Brevard, Northern Brevard
      Barrier Islands, and Southern Brevard Barrier Islands

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 530 miles south of Leesburg FL
    - 21.3N 83.4W
    - Storm Intensity 105 mph
    - Movement North-northwest or 340 degrees at 13 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Ian was located about 525 miles south of Leesburg at 11 pm,
with 105 mph winds, and continues to strengthen while moving north
northwest at 13 mph. Ian is forecast to cross the westernmost
portion of Cuba as a major hurricane early Tuesday and enter the
southeast Gulf of Mexico while continuing strengthening through
Tuesday afternoon. Ian is then forecast to track north northeast
offshore of the southwest Florida coast on Wednesday, and approach the
west central Florida coast Wednesday night and Thursday, while slowing
in forward speed.

As Ian approaches the west central Florida coast, tropical storm
conditions will develop across east central Florida from north to south
on Wednesday into Wednesday night. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect
for Lake County, and a Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for all
inland east central Florida counties. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in
effect for all coastal east central Florida counties. Flooding impacts
may begin as early as Tuesday, and wind impacts as early as Wednesday.

Significant to extensive wind impacts are expected, with the onset of
tropical storm wind gusts from the outer bands of Ian Wednesday, and
deteoriating wind conditions expected Wednesday night into Thursday.
Wind impacts may linger into Thursday night and early Friday across
mainly northern portions of east central Florida from Orlando and Cape
Canaveral northward depending if the system slows further from its
current forecast path.

Locally heavy rainfall amounts are expected Tuesday through Thursday
night across east central Florida. Storm total rainfall amounts may
reach 5 to 10 inches with some localized spots reaching 12 inches. A
Flood Watch is in effect across all of east central Florida through
late Thursday night. Additional areal and river is likely across
portions of east central Florida that receive the heaviest rainfall.

The environment will be increasingly favorable for the development
of isolated tornadoes across east central Florida Tuesday through
mid week.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across east central Florida. Potential
impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
      become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas, destructive runoff
      may run quickly down valleys while increasing susceptibility to
      rockslides and mudslides. Flood control systems and barriers
      may become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts across east central Florida. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across East Central Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

* SURGE:
Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time across East Central
Florida.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time
to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle
ahead of time.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

It is important to remain calm, informed, and focused during an
emergency. Be patient and helpful with those you encounter.

If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city or town in
which you are staying and the name of the county in which it resides.
Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay attention for
instructions from local authorities.

Rapidly rising flood waters are dangerous. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown!

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around 6 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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