[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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WTUS82 KKEY 260400
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Tropical Storm Ian Local Statement Advisory Number 12
National Weather Service Key West FL  AL092022
1200 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

This product covers the Florida Keys

**Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch issued**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
      Warning and a Storm Surge Watch have been issued for Monroe
      Lower Keys
    - A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for Monroe Middle Keys and
      Monroe Upper Keys

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch are in effect
      for Monroe Lower Keys
    - A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for Monroe Middle Keys and
      Monroe Upper Keys

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 500 miles south of Key West FL
    - 17.3N 81.4W
    - Storm Intensity 65 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 315 degrees at 13 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

At 1100 PM EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located over the
warm and deep waters of the Western Caribbean, to the south of the
Cayman Islands. Ian is moving toward the northwest, and a turn to the
north-northwest is expected Monday, followed by a northward motion on
Tuesday with a slightly slower forward speed. On the forecast track,
the center of Ian is expected to pass near or west of the Cayman
Islands on Monday, and near or over western Cuba Monday night and early
Tuesday. Ian will then emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on
Tuesday, likely as a major hurricane.

Although the forecast calls for a smooth curving turn to the north,
tiny wobbles, interactions with land, and fluctuations in intensity
will result in subtle shifts in the forecast track over the next
48 hours. Nevertheless, Ian will pass west of the Florida Keys Tuesday
and Tuesday night as a major hurricane with a large wind field
extending well to the east of the center of circulation. Threats will
include damaging wind gusts from fast moving squalls, storm surge
flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal high tides, flooding rainfall,
and isolated tornadoes.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for dangerous winds having possible significant impacts
across the Lower Keys. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with minor
      damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few
      buildings may experience window, door, and garage door
      failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored.
      Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Isolated power and communications outages possible.

* SURGE:
Protect against hazardous storm surge having possible significant
impacts across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of secondary roads become weakened or washed out,
      especially in usually vulnerable low spots.
    - Major beach erosion.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for rainfall flooding having possible significant impacts
across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include:
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rainfall
      flooding at low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some
      streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains
      and retention ponds overflow. Some secondary road closures due
      to freshwater flooding.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, mobile
      homes damaged, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow
    - rooted trees knocked over, and small boats pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders
that are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives
of others.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be
concluded as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The
onset of strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain
preparedness activities to become unsafe.

If staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their onsite
disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially pertaining
to area visitors.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For Monroe County Emergency Management Information, Hurricane
  Preparedness Information, Evacuation Information, and shelter
  information see monroecountyem.com/JIC
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
- For Florida Division of Emergency Management information, see
floridadisaster.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Key West FL around 6 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

LIW
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